WASHINGTON
CAPITALSWSH
51-21-9 | Road
2
PITTSBURGH
PENGUINSPIT
33-36-12 | Home
5
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Rasmus Sandin
#38 | Defense@
GOALTENDER
Erik Karlsson
#65 | Defense| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmus Sandin | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
| Erik Karlsson | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
--
GAA
--
--
Save %
--
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
CAPITALS
0%
PENGUINS
100%
CAPITALS
--
PENGUINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Washington)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around WSH -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)
WSH By 1 goal
19.7%
WSH By 2-3 goals
30.1%
PIT By 1 goal
11.8%
PIT By 2-3 goals
9.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
3.03
WASHINGTON
Pittsburgh
1.98
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
Washington
3
WASHINGTON
Pittsburgh
2
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Capitals
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Capitals
Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Capitals (-0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim
Capitals (-0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 7, 2026
PIT @ WSH
3 - 5
Apr 12, 2026
PIT @ WSH
0 - 3
Apr 11, 2026
WSH @ PIT
6 - 3
Nov 6, 2025
WSH @ PIT
3 - 5
Apr 17, 2025
WSH @ PIT
2 - 5
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5)
+37.8% more
Washington: 18.1
vs
Pittsburgh: 11.3
Shots on Goal (L5)
+13.1% more
Washington: 30.5
vs
Pittsburgh: 26.5
Power Play % (L5)
+15.7%
Pittsburgh: 39.2%
vs
Washington: 23.5%
Faceoff % (L5)
+1.6%
Pittsburgh: 51.6%
vs
Washington: 49.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
3.0
2
PIT Score
2.0
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
11.3 / 18.1
8.0 / 20.0
Faceoff %
51.6 / 49.9
50.0 / 50.0
Hits
22.6 / 21.8
24.0 / 16.0
Power Play %
39.2 / 23.5
50.0 / 50.0
Shots on Goal
26.5 / 30.5
38.0 / 20.0
Takeaways
4.9 / 5.3
6.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
WSH
PIT
WSH
ML
75%
3-1
100%
3-0
25%
1-3
67%
2-1
ATS
75%
3-1
100%
3-0
75%
3-1
67%
2-1
TTL
25%
1-3
33%
1-2
50%
2-2
33%
1-2
Contextual Game News
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