SAN FRANCISCO
GIANTSSF
13-5 | Road
4
PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
10-8 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Christian Koss
#50 | Shortstop@
STARTING PITCHER
Jose Alvarado
#46 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Koss | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Jose Alvarado | None-None | 2.89 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
--
ERA
2.89
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
GIANTS
0%
PHILLIES
100%
GIANTS
--
PHILLIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.3
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.3 points (San Francisco)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SF -1.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)
SF By 1-2 runs
19.7%
SF By 3-4 runs
17.0%
PHI By 1-2 runs
15.5%
PHI By 3-4 runs
9.8%
AI Model Projected Score
San Francisco
5.27
SAN FRANCISCO
Philadelphia
3.97
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
San Francisco
4
SAN FRANCISCO
Philadelphia
5
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Giants
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Phillies
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Giants (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.3
D
Sim
Phillies (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.2
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 30, 2026
SF @ PHI
2 - 3
Apr 28, 2026
SF @ PHI
0 - 7
Apr 8, 2026
PHI @ SF
0 - 5
Apr 7, 2026
PHI @ SF
0 - 6
Apr 6, 2026
PHI @ SF
6 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
San Francisco
SF
vs
Philadelphia
PHI
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.13
▲
Runs / Game
3.50
.245
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.306
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.286
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.438
.706
OPS
▲
.724
178
▲
Home Runs
3
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+98.3% more
San Francisco: 178.0
vs
Philadelphia: 3.0
Hits (L5)
+23.7% more
San Francisco: 9.7
vs
Philadelphia: 7.4
Total Bases (L5)
+21.0% more
San Francisco: 15.5
vs
Philadelphia: 12.2
Runs per Game (Season)
+15.3% more
San Francisco: 4.1
vs
Philadelphia: 3.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SF Score
5.3
4
PHI Score
4.0
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.6
2.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.4 / 9.7
6.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 0.8
0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
8.9 / 9.5
14.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
12.2 / 15.5
8.0 / 13.0
Walks
4.5 / 4.7
1.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SF
65-97-0
(40.1%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SF
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
SF
PHI
SF
ML
59%
97-67
49%
79-81
49%
80-84
53%
85-75
ATS
65%
107-57
62%
100-60
51%
83-81
52%
83-77
TTL
57%
88-67-9
55%
82-68-10
51%
78-76-9
46%
68-81-11
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