MIAMI
HEATMIA
0-0 | Road
109
CHICAGO
BULLSCHI
0-0 | Home
90
AI Model Win Probability
HEAT
0%
BULLS
100%
HEAT
--
BULLS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
246.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MIA -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
MIA By 1-7 points
25.7%
MIA By 8-14 points
15.9%
CHI By 1-7 points
24.9%
CHI By 8-14 points
14.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
123.51
MIAMI
Chicago
123.12
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
Miami
112
MIAMI
Chicago
108
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Heat
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Heat
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Heat (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -0.4
D
Sim
Heat (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 246.6
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 220.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 1, 2026
CHI @ MIA
91 - 134
Jan 31, 2026
CHI @ MIA
125 - 118
Jan 29, 2026
MIA @ CHI
116 - 113
Nov 21, 2025
MIA @ CHI
143 - 107
Apr 16, 2025
MIA @ CHI
109 - 90
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+8.6% more
Miami: 9.3
vs
Chicago: 8.5
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+3.0%
Miami: 37.9%
vs
Chicago: 34.9%
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.3%
Miami: 50.2%
vs
Chicago: 47.9%
Turnovers (L5)
+44.1% more
Chicago: 14.5
vs
Miami: 10.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
123.5
109
CHI Score
123.1
90
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.9 / 37.9
27.0 / 37.1
Assists
29.9 / 29.2
15.0 / 30.0
Blocks
5.0 / 4.8
4.0 / 7.0
Field Goal %
47.9 / 50.2
39.8 / 49.4
Free Throw %
84.3 / 78.3
82.4 / 63.6
Rebounding
52.5 / 48.4
38.0 / 45.0
Steals
8.5 / 9.3
9.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
14.5 / 10.1
18.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
Advantage
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
CHI
31-51-0
(37.8%)
Margin: -5.2
ATS +/-: -1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
Advantage
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
CHI
39-43-0
(47.6%)
Margin: -5.2
ATS +/-: -1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
CHI
38-44-0
O: 46.3% / U: 53.7%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHI
MIA
CHI
MIA
ML
56%
54-42
48%
46-50
57%
46-35
59%
48-34
ATS
65%
62-33-1
51%
49-47
57%
46-35
59%
48-34
TTL
58%
56-40
59%
57-39
100%
81-0
100%
82-0
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