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DALLAS

MAVERICKSDAL

0-0  |  Road

120
FINAL
Wed, Apr 16 • 10:00 PM ET
Golden 1 Center
View Odds Details →

SACRAMENTO

KINGSSAC

0-0  |  Home

106
AI Model Win Probability
MAVERICKS
100%
📊
KINGS
0%
MAVERICKS --
KINGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
219.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.6
SACRAMENTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 points (Sacramento)
MavericksDAL (-3.5) 0 KingsSAC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mavericks Cover

47.4%

Kings Cover

52.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SAC -0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SAC)

DAL By 1-7 points

24.7%

DAL By 8-14 points

14.3%

SAC By 1-7 points

25.9%

SAC By 8-14 points

16.4%

AI Model Projected Score
109.18
DALLAS
109.83
SACRAMENTO
Simulated Score
118
DALLAS
122
SACRAMENTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Kings Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Kings Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Kings (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -0.6
D
Sim Kings (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 219.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 240.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 26, 2026 SAC @ DAL 130 - 121
Jan 6, 2026 DAL @ SAC 100 - 98
Dec 27, 2025 DAL @ SAC 107 - 113
Apr 16, 2025 DAL @ SAC 120 - 106
Mar 3, 2025 SAC @ DAL 122 - 98
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +19.4%
Sacramento: 90.0% vs Dallas: 70.6%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +9.3%
Sacramento: 39.2% vs Dallas: 29.9%
Blocks (L5) +40.5% more
Dallas: 5.6 vs Sacramento: 3.3
Turnovers (L5) +33.9% more
Dallas: 17.8 vs Sacramento: 11.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DAL Score 109.2 120
SAC Score 109.8 106
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.2 / 29.9 39.4 / 50.0
Assists 26.0 / 25.2 23.0 / 29.0
Blocks 3.3 / 5.6 4.0 / 8.0
Field Goal % 48.9 / 48.2 46.1 / 49.4
Free Throw % 90.0 / 70.6 73.3 / 92.3
Rebounding 43.2 / 43.0 44.0 / 41.0
Steals 5.4 / 6.6 6.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 11.8 / 17.8 18.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
22%TICKETS78%
20%MONEY80%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
21%MONEY79%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
82%TICKETS18%
64%MONEY36%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAL Advantage
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
SAC
22-60-0 (26.8%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAL
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
SAC
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
⚖️ Over/Under
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9% Total +/-: +1.0
SAC
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SAC
DAL
SAC
DAL
ML
55% 55-45
62% 63-39
61% 50-32
54% 44-37
ATS
54% 52-45-3
67% 68-34
61% 50-32
54% 44-37
TTL
58% 57-42-1
59% 60-41-1
100% 82-0
100% 81-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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