HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
8-9 | Road
1
ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
8-9 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Bennett Sousa
#62 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Kyle Leahy
#62 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bennett Sousa | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 0.1 | -- |
| Kyle Leahy | None-None | 1.54 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
0.00 Ldr
ERA
1.54
--
WHIP
--
0.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
ASTROS
100%
CARDINALS
0%
ASTROS
--
CARDINALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.8
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 points (St. Louis)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around STL -0.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)
HOU By 1-2 runs
16.8%
HOU By 3-4 runs
11.2%
STL By 1-2 runs
19.4%
STL By 3-4 runs
15.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
4.49
HOUSTON
St. Louis
5.29
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
Houston
5
HOUSTON
St. Louis
3
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Cardinals
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Astros
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Cardinals (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.8
D
Sim
Astros (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.8
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 19, 2026
STL @ HOU
7 - 5
Apr 18, 2026
STL @ HOU
7 - 5
Apr 17, 2026
STL @ HOU
9 - 4
Apr 16, 2025
HOU @ STL
1 - 4
Apr 15, 2025
HOU @ STL
2 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Houston
HOU
vs
St. Louis
STL
2
Games Played
▲
162
3.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.44
.169
Avg (AVG)
▲
.239
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.313
.354
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.378
.582
OPS
▲
.691
4
Home Runs
▲
167
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+4075.0% more
St. Louis: 167.0
vs
Houston: 4.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+48.0% more
St. Louis: 4.4
vs
Houston: 3.0
Walks (L5)
+34.3% more
St. Louis: 2.7
vs
Houston: 2.0
Hits (L5)
+26.8% more
St. Louis: 9.2
vs
Houston: 7.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
4.5
1
STL Score
5.3
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.5
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
9.2 / 7.3
8.0 / 4.0
Home Runs
0.6 / 1.1
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.5 / 8.9
8.0 / 2.0
Total Bases
14.2 / 11.7
12.0 / 5.0
Walks
2.7 / 2.0
1.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
Advantage
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
STL
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
STL
Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
HOU
STL
HOU
ML
53%
85-74
50%
81-82
52%
84-77
47%
77-87
ATS
56%
89-70
56%
91-72
53%
85-76
55%
90-74
TTL
46%
68-81-10
45%
70-84-9
50%
76-75-10
45%
69-86-9
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