CHICAGO
CUBSCHC
12-8 | Road
2
SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
14-4 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Ethan Roberts
#39 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Wandy Peralta
#58 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethan Roberts | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 0.1 | -- |
| Wandy Peralta | None-None | 1.08 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
0.00 Ldr
ERA
1.08
--
WHIP
--
0.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
CUBS
100%
PADRES
0%
CUBS
--
PADRES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
12.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (San Diego)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SD -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)
CHC By 1-2 runs
17.9%
CHC By 3-4 runs
12.7%
SD By 1-2 runs
18.9%
SD By 3-4 runs
14.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Chicago
6.06
CHICAGO
San Diego
6.34
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
Chicago
4
CHICAGO
San Diego
5
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Padres
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Padres
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Padres (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.3
D
Sim
Padres (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 12.4
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 30, 2026
CHC @ SD
1 - 4
Sep 29, 2026
CHC @ SD
0 - 8
Jul 1, 2026
SD @ CHC
3 - 23
Jun 30, 2026
SD @ CHC
7 - 9
Jun 29, 2026
SD @ CHC
2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago
CHC
vs
San Diego
SD
2
Games Played
2
0.50
Runs / Game
▲
6.00
.129
Avg (AVG)
▲
.328
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.362
.145
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.563
.374
OPS
▲
.925
0
Home Runs
▲
4
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+550.0% more
San Diego: 6.0
vs
Chicago: 0.5
OPS (Season)
+55.1%
San Diego: 92.5%
vs
Chicago: 37.4%
Slugging Pct (Season)
+41.8%
San Diego: 56.3%
vs
Chicago: 14.5%
Home Runs (L5)
+24.3% more
San Diego: 1.4
vs
Chicago: 1.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHC Score
6.1
2
SD Score
6.3
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.7
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.3 / 10.2
7.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
1.4 / 1.2
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.6 / 8.9
9.0 / 4.0
Total Bases
14.1 / 17.1
8.0 / 10.0
Walks
2.6 / 3.8
1.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHC
89-75-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5%
Total +/-: +1.0
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
CHC
SD
CHC
ML
51%
85-83
58%
93-68
51%
85-82
51%
82-79
ATS
54%
91-77
61%
97-63-1
55%
92-75
47%
75-85-1
TTL
51%
82-80-6
52%
81-74-6
54%
86-74-6
46%
72-83-6
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