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SAN FRANCISCO

GIANTSSF

12-5  |  Road

11
FINAL
Wed, Apr 16 • 6:45 PM ET
Citizens Bank Park
View Odds Details →

PHILADELPHIA

PHILLIESPHI

10-7  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Camilo Doval
STARTING PITCHER

Camilo Doval

#57 | Relief Pitcher
@
Aaron Nola
STARTING PITCHER

Aaron Nola

#27 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Camilo Doval None-None 3.24 -- 1.0 1
Aaron Nola None-None 6.65 -- 5.1 8
None-None W-L None-None
3.24 Ldr ERA 6.65
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 5.1
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 8
AI Model Win Probability
GIANTS
0%
📊
PHILLIES
100%
GIANTS --
PHILLIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.7
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 points (San Francisco)
GiantsSF (-3.5) 0 PhilliesPHI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Giants Cover

56.7%

Phillies Cover

43.3%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SF -0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)

SF By 1-2 runs

19.3%

SF By 3-4 runs

15.4%

PHI By 1-2 runs

17.1%

PHI By 3-4 runs

11.6%

AI Model Projected Score
4.85
SAN FRANCISCO
4.18
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
5
SAN FRANCISCO
4
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Giants Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Giants Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Giants (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.7
D
Sim Giants (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 30, 2026 SF @ PHI 2 - 3
Apr 28, 2026 SF @ PHI 0 - 7
Apr 8, 2026 PHI @ SF 0 - 5
Apr 7, 2026 PHI @ SF 0 - 6
Apr 6, 2026 PHI @ SF 6 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
San Francisco SF
vs
Philadelphia PHI
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.13 ▲
Runs / Game
3.50
.245
Avg (AVG)
▲ .247
.306 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.286
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .438
.706
OPS
▲ .724
178 ▲
Home Runs
3
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +98.3% more
San Francisco: 178.0 vs Philadelphia: 3.0
Walks (L5) +43.8% more
San Francisco: 4.0 vs Philadelphia: 2.2
Home Runs (L5) +16.8% more
San Francisco: 1.3 vs Philadelphia: 1.0
Runs per Game (Season) +15.3% more
San Francisco: 4.1 vs Philadelphia: 3.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SF Score 4.9 11
PHI Score 4.2 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.4 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 7.6 / 8.0 7.0 / 13.0
Home Runs 1.0 / 1.3 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.3 / 7.7 10.0 / 13.0
Total Bases 12.8 / 14.7 11.0 / 17.0
Walks 2.2 / 4.0 9.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
27%TICKETS73%
26%MONEY74%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
41%MONEY59%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
76%MONEY24%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SF
65-97-0 (40.1%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
PHI Advantage
89-76-0 (53.9%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SF Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.6
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7% Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
SF
PHI
SF
ML
59% 97-67
49% 79-81
49% 80-84
53% 85-75
ATS
65% 107-57
62% 100-60
51% 83-81
52% 83-77
TTL
57% 88-67-9
55% 82-68-10
51% 78-76-9
46% 68-81-11
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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