WASHINGTON
CAPITALSWSH
50-21-9 | Road
3
NEW YORK
ISLANDERSNYI
35-33-12 | Home
1
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Charlie Lindgren
#79 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Ilya Sorokin
#30 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Lindgren | None-None | 1.00 | 0.970 | -- |
| Ilya Sorokin | None-None | 2.09 | 0.943 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
1.00 Ldr
GAA
2.09
0.970 Ldr
Save %
0.943
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
CAPITALS
100%
ISLANDERS
0%
CAPITALS
--
ISLANDERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
4.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around NYI -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYI)
WSH By 1 goal
15.4%
WSH By 2-3 goals
14.3%
NYI By 1 goal
19.0%
NYI By 2-3 goals
23.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
2.2
WASHINGTON
New York
2.63
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
Washington
3
WASHINGTON
New York
2
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Islanders
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Capitals
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Islanders (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -0.4
D
Sim
Capitals (-0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 4.8
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 2, 2026
NYI @ WSH
1 - 4
Nov 30, 2025
WSH @ NYI
4 - 1
Oct 31, 2025
NYI @ WSH
3 - 1
Oct 11, 2025
WSH @ NYI
4 - 2
Apr 15, 2025
WSH @ NYI
3 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Shots on Goal (L5)
+11.7% more
New York: 30.9
vs
Washington: 27.7
Faceoff % (L5)
+1.5%
New York: 54.1%
vs
Washington: 52.6%
Takeaways (L5)
+17.3% more
Washington: 6.4
vs
New York: 5.3
Hits (L5)
+9.4% more
Washington: 26.2
vs
New York: 23.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
2.2
3
NYI Score
2.6
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
17.4 / 17.7
17.0 / 19.0
Faceoff %
54.1 / 52.6
55.4 / 44.6
Hits
23.7 / 26.2
8.0 / 13.0
Power Play %
15.7 / 22.8
0.0 / 25.0
Shots on Goal
30.9 / 27.7
33.0 / 36.0
Takeaways
5.3 / 6.4
3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYI
WSH
NYI
WSH
ML
67%
2-1
100%
3-0
67%
2-1
67%
2-1
ATS
33%
1-2
100%
3-0
33%
1-2
67%
2-1
TTL
100%
2-0-1
33%
1-2
100%
2-0-1
33%
1-2
Contextual Game News
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Islanders' Blue Line Shake-Up: Three Defenders Who Must Elevate …
Ovechkin's Sons Steal the Show at Capitals' Home Opener as Washi…
Ovechkin's Sons Steal the Show as Capitals Clip Penguins 5-3 in …
Penguins Embarrassed by Capitals as Turnovers and Disorganizatio…