CHICAGO
CUBSCHC
11-8 | Road
2
SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
14-3 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Caleb Thielbar
#24 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Yuki Matsui
#1 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Thielbar | None-None | 5.40 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Yuki Matsui | None-None | 1.29 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
5.40
ERA
Ldr 1.29
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
CUBS
100%
PADRES
0%
CUBS
--
PADRES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
12.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (San Diego)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SD -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)
CHC By 1-2 runs
16.6%
CHC By 3-4 runs
10.9%
SD By 1-2 runs
19.5%
SD By 3-4 runs
16.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Chicago
5.89
CHICAGO
San Diego
6.78
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
Chicago
4
CHICAGO
San Diego
5
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Padres
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Padres
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Padres (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.9
D
Sim
Padres (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 12.7
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 30, 2026
CHC @ SD
1 - 4
Sep 29, 2026
CHC @ SD
0 - 8
Jul 1, 2026
SD @ CHC
3 - 23
Jun 30, 2026
SD @ CHC
7 - 9
Jun 29, 2026
SD @ CHC
2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago
CHC
vs
San Diego
SD
2
Games Played
2
0.50
Runs / Game
▲
6.00
.129
Avg (AVG)
▲
.328
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.362
.145
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.563
.374
OPS
▲
.925
0
Home Runs
▲
4
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+550.0% more
San Diego: 6.0
vs
Chicago: 0.5
OPS (Season)
+55.1%
San Diego: 92.5%
vs
Chicago: 37.4%
Slugging Pct (Season)
+41.8%
San Diego: 56.3%
vs
Chicago: 14.5%
Errors (L5)
+39.0% more
San Diego: 0.4
vs
Chicago: 0.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHC Score
5.9
2
SD Score
6.8
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.1
1.0 / 2.0
Hits
10.0 / 10.3
5.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
1.6 / 1.7
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.8 / 7.8
8.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
16.7 / 18.7
9.0 / 14.0
Walks
2.3 / 3.7
3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHC
89-75-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5%
Total +/-: +1.0
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
CHC
SD
CHC
ML
51%
85-83
58%
93-68
51%
85-82
51%
82-79
ATS
54%
91-77
61%
97-63-1
55%
92-75
47%
75-85-1
TTL
51%
82-80-6
52%
81-74-6
54%
86-74-6
46%
72-83-6
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