Home / MLB Projections MLB / Giants @ Phillies SF @ PHI

SAN FRANCISCO

GIANTSSF

11-4  |  Road

10
FINAL
Mon, Apr 14 • 6:45 PM ET
Citizens Bank Park
View Odds Details →

PHILADELPHIA

PHILLIESPHI

9-6  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Camilo Doval
STARTING PITCHER

Camilo Doval

#57 | Relief Pitcher
@
Brandon Marsh
STARTING PITCHER

Brandon Marsh

#16 | Left Field
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Camilo Doval None-None 3.68 -- 1.0 2
Brandon Marsh None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
3.68 ERA --
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) --
2 K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
GIANTS
100%
📊
PHILLIES
0%
GIANTS --
PHILLIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.2
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 points (Philadelphia)
GiantsSF (-3.5) 0 PhilliesPHI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Giants Cover

38.3%

Phillies Cover

61.7%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PHI -1.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)

SF By 1-2 runs

15.8%

SF By 3-4 runs

10.1%

PHI By 1-2 runs

19.7%

PHI By 3-4 runs

16.8%

AI Model Projected Score
4.01
SAN FRANCISCO
5.2
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
5
SAN FRANCISCO
4
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Phillies Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Giants Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Phillies (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.2
D
Sim Giants (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.2
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 30, 2026 SF @ PHI 2 - 3
Apr 28, 2026 SF @ PHI 0 - 7
Apr 8, 2026 PHI @ SF 0 - 5
Apr 7, 2026 PHI @ SF 0 - 6
Apr 6, 2026 PHI @ SF 6 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
San Francisco SF
vs
Philadelphia PHI
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.13 ▲
Runs / Game
3.50
.245
Avg (AVG)
▲ .247
.306 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.286
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .438
.706
OPS
▲ .724
178 ▲
Home Runs
3
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +24.0% more
Philadelphia: 0.4 vs San Francisco: 0.1
Slugging Pct (Season) +3.8%
Philadelphia: 43.8% vs San Francisco: 40.0%
OPS (Season) +1.8%
Philadelphia: 72.4% vs San Francisco: 70.6%
Batting Avg (Season) +0.2%
Philadelphia: 24.7% vs San Francisco: 24.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SF Score 4.0 10
PHI Score 5.2 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.1 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 5.5 / 6.0 8.0 / 12.0
Home Runs 0.3 / 1.3 1.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 7.2 / 9.3 11.0 / 13.0
Total Bases 7.5 / 12.5 14.0 / 26.0
Walks 2.5 / 3.9 2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
55%MONEY45%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
24%TICKETS76%
52%MONEY48%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
58%MONEY42%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SF
65-97-0 (40.1%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
PHI Advantage
89-76-0 (53.9%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SF Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.6
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7% Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
SF
PHI
SF
ML
59% 97-67
49% 79-81
49% 80-84
53% 85-75
ATS
65% 107-57
62% 100-60
51% 83-81
52% 83-77
TTL
57% 88-67-9
55% 82-68-10
51% 78-76-9
46% 68-81-11
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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