Home / MLB Projections MLB / Cubs @ Padres CHC @ SD

CHICAGO

CUBSCHC

11-7  |  Road

4
FINAL
Mon, Apr 14 • 9:40 PM ET
Petco Park
View Odds Details →

SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

13-3  |  Home

10
Probable Pitchers
Ethan Roberts
STARTING PITCHER

Ethan Roberts

#39 | Relief Pitcher
@
Wandy Peralta
STARTING PITCHER

Wandy Peralta

#58 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Ethan Roberts None-None 0.00 -- 1.0 --
Wandy Peralta None-None 0.00 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
0.00 ERA 0.00
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
CUBS
0%
📊
PADRES
100%
CUBS --
PADRES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
13.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.6
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 points (Chicago)
CubsCHC (-3.5) 0 PadresSD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cubs Cover

55.5%

Padres Cover

44.5%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CHC -0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)

CHC By 1-2 runs

19.2%

CHC By 3-4 runs

15.1%

SD By 1-2 runs

17.4%

SD By 3-4 runs

11.9%

AI Model Projected Score
6.82
CHICAGO
6.27
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
4
CHICAGO
5
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Cubs Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Padres Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Cubs (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.6
D
Sim Padres (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 13.1
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 30, 2026 CHC @ SD 1 - 4
Sep 29, 2026 CHC @ SD 0 - 8
Jul 1, 2026 SD @ CHC 3 - 23
Jun 30, 2026 SD @ CHC 7 - 9
Jun 29, 2026 SD @ CHC 2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago CHC
vs
San Diego SD
2
Games Played
2
0.50
Runs / Game
▲ 6.00
.129
Avg (AVG)
▲ .328
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .362
.145
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .563
.374
OPS
▲ .925
0
Home Runs
▲ 4
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +53.8% more
Chicago: 2.1 vs San Diego: 1.0
Total Bases (L5) +26.1% more
Chicago: 19.0 vs San Diego: 14.0
Hits (L5) +9.9% more
Chicago: 10.0 vs San Diego: 9.0
Runs per Game (Season) +550.0% more
San Diego: 6.0 vs Chicago: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHC Score 6.8 4
SD Score 6.3 10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.1 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.0 / 10.0 12.0 / 11.0
Home Runs 1.0 / 2.1 3.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.7 / 8.7 9.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 14.0 / 19.0 22.0 / 18.0
Walks 2.0 / 2.1 3.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
24%TICKETS76%
32%MONEY68%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
17%MONEY83%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
70%MONEY30%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHC
89-75-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
SD Advantage
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5% Total +/-: +1.0
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
CHC
SD
CHC
ML
51% 85-83
58% 93-68
51% 85-82
51% 82-79
ATS
54% 91-77
61% 97-63-1
55% 92-75
47% 75-85-1
TTL
51% 82-80-6
52% 81-74-6
54% 86-74-6
46% 72-83-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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