INDIANA
PACERSIND
49-32 | Road
126
CLEVELAND
CAVALIERSCLE
64-17 | Home
118
AI Model Win Probability
PACERS
0%
CAVALIERS
100%
PACERS
--
CAVALIERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
244.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.4
INDIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.4 points (Indiana)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around IND -2.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IND)
IND By 1-7 points
27.0%
IND By 8-14 points
19.2%
CLE By 1-7 points
22.4%
CLE By 8-14 points
11.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Indiana
123.48
INDIANA
Cleveland
121.05
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
Indiana
118
INDIANA
Cleveland
124
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Pacers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cavaliers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Pacers (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -2.4
D
Sim
Cavaliers (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 244.5
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 242.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 5, 2026
IND @ CLE
108 - 117
Jan 6, 2026
CLE @ IND
120 - 116
Dec 1, 2025
CLE @ IND
135 - 119
Nov 21, 2025
IND @ CLE
109 - 120
May 13, 2025
IND @ CLE
114 - 105
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+61.4% more
Indiana: 8.0
vs
Cleveland: 3.1
Free Throw % (L5)
+4.0%
Indiana: 72.9%
vs
Cleveland: 68.9%
Steals (L5)
+18.3% more
Cleveland: 8.2
vs
Indiana: 6.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+3.2%
Cleveland: 39.4%
vs
Indiana: 36.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
IND Score
123.5
126
CLE Score
121.1
118
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
39.4 / 36.2
30.0 / 23.8
Assists
26.7 / 27.2
21.0 / 27.0
Blocks
3.1 / 8.0
9.0 / 10.0
Field Goal %
48.7 / 45.9
38.3 / 40.3
Free Throw %
68.9 / 72.9
54.5 / 90.9
Rebounding
46.8 / 45.0
65.0 / 61.0
Steals
8.2 / 6.9
6.0 / 15.0
Turnovers
13.7 / 12.7
22.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IND
19-63-0
(23.2%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
CLE
Advantage
60-40-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: -2.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IND
Advantage
40-42-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
CLE
40-60-0
(40.0%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: -2.4
⚖️ Over/Under
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.8
CLE
52-48-0
O: 52.0% / U: 48.0%
Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
IND
CLE
IND
ML
60%
69-46
48%
47-50
56%
55-44
54%
45-38
ATS
67%
75-37-3
59%
57-40
56%
55-44
54%
45-38
TTL
59%
68-47
54%
52-45
100%
99-0
100%
83-0
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