Home / NBA Projections NBA / Mavericks @ Grizzlies DAL @ MEM

DALLAS

MAVERICKSDAL

39-42  |  Road

97
FINAL
Sun, Apr 13 • 3:30 PM ET
FedExForum
View Odds Details →

MEMPHIS

GRIZZLIESMEM

47-34  |  Home

132
AI Model Win Probability
MAVERICKS
100%
📊
GRIZZLIES
0%
MAVERICKS --
GRIZZLIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
224.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.4
MEMPHIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.4 points (Memphis)
MavericksDAL (-3.5) 0 GrizzliesMEM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mavericks Cover

26.2%

Grizzlies Cover

73.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MEM -6.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MEM)

DAL By 1-7 points

16.3%

DAL By 8-14 points

6.4%

MEM By 1-7 points

26.6%

MEM By 8-14 points

24.7%

AI Model Projected Score
109
DALLAS
115.37
MEMPHIS
Simulated Score
118
DALLAS
122
MEMPHIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Grizzlies Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Grizzlies Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Grizzlies (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.4
D
Sim Grizzlies (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 224.4
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 240.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 12, 2026 DAL @ MEM 120 - 112
Feb 27, 2026 MEM @ DAL 124 - 105
Nov 22, 2025 MEM @ DAL 102 - 96
Nov 7, 2025 DAL @ MEM 104 - 118
Apr 18, 2025 DAL @ MEM 106 - 120
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +9.8% more
Memphis: 7.5 vs Dallas: 6.9
Free Throw % (L5) +5.0%
Memphis: 74.6% vs Dallas: 69.6%
Blocks (L5) +46.1% more
Dallas: 6.9 vs Memphis: 3.7
Turnovers (L5) +19.9% more
Dallas: 17.7 vs Memphis: 14.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DAL Score 109.0 97
MEM Score 115.4 132
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.3 / 35.8 37.5 / 17.9
Assists 24.7 / 27.8 31.0 / 20.0
Blocks 3.7 / 6.9 7.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 46.6 / 50.4 50.0 / 43.7
Free Throw % 74.6 / 69.6 86.7 / 72.7
Rebounding 43.9 / 45.4 53.0 / 38.0
Steals 7.5 / 6.9 13.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 14.2 / 17.7 12.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
43%MONEY57%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
41%MONEY59%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
74%MONEY26%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAL Advantage
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
MEM
25-57-0 (30.5%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAL
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
MEM Advantage
37-45-0 (45.1%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9% Total +/-: +1.0
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MEM
DAL
MEM
DAL
ML
57% 59-44
62% 63-39
50% 41-41
54% 44-37
ATS
63% 65-38
67% 68-34
50% 41-41
54% 44-37
TTL
70% 71-31-1
59% 60-41-1
100% 82-0
100% 81-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Cooper Flagg and Mavericks Face Media at NBA China Games in Macao
dallasnews 1 hour, 11 minutes ago
Kyrie Irving Set for Mavericks Return in China After 19-Month AC…
yahoo 7 hours, 3 minutes ago
Desmond Bane Returns to FedExForum as Grizzlies Host Magic in Pr…
actionnews5 1 day, 1 hour ago
Zach Edey to Sit Out Grizzlies' Preseason Opener vs. Hawks, Team…
yahoo 3 days, 1 hour ago
Draymond Green Blames Voided Trade for Knecht's Lakers Downfall
yahoo 3 days, 19 hours ago