DENVER
NUGGETSDEN
49-32 | Road
126
HOUSTON
ROCKETSHOU
52-29 | Home
111
AI Model Win Probability
NUGGETS
100%
ROCKETS
0%
NUGGETS
--
ROCKETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
239.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.6
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.6 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around HOU -8.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
DEN By 1-7 points
12.8%
DEN By 8-14 points
4.3%
HOU By 1-7 points
24.7%
HOU By 8-14 points
26.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Denver
115.23
DENVER
Houston
123.82
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
Denver
121
DENVER
Houston
112
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Rockets
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Nuggets
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Rockets (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -8.6
D
Sim
Nuggets (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 239.1
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 233.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 11, 2026
HOU @ DEN
93 - 129
Dec 20, 2025
HOU @ DEN
115 - 101
Dec 15, 2025
HOU @ DEN
125 - 128
Nov 21, 2025
DEN @ HOU
112 - 109
Apr 13, 2025
DEN @ HOU
126 - 111
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+17.9% more
Houston: 15.6
vs
Denver: 13.2
Steals (L5)
+15.8% more
Houston: 8.3
vs
Denver: 7.2
Blocks (L5)
+13.6% more
Houston: 5.1
vs
Denver: 4.5
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+10.1%
Houston: 40.1%
vs
Denver: 29.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DEN Score
115.2
126
HOU Score
123.8
111
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
40.1 / 29.9
35.3 / 34.5
Assists
24.4 / 31.0
32.0 / 28.0
Blocks
5.1 / 4.5
4.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
48.3 / 50.2
45.0 / 51.1
Free Throw %
68.8 / 76.8
64.3 / 83.9
Rebounding
43.0 / 47.8
45.0 / 47.0
Steals
8.3 / 7.2
5.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
15.6 / 13.2
10.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN
Advantage
56-32-0
(63.6%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
HOU
54-34-0
(61.4%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
HOU
38-50-0
(43.2%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8%
Total +/-: +3.4
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9%
Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
DEN
HOU
DEN
ML
61%
69-44
54%
57-48
59%
51-35
55%
47-39
ATS
62%
70-43
63%
65-38-2
59%
51-35
55%
47-39
TTL
51%
58-55
54%
56-48-1
100%
86-0
100%
86-0
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