Home / NBA Projections NBA / Lakers @ Trail Blazers LAL @ POR

LOS ANGELES

LAKERSLAL

50-31  |  Road

81
FINAL
Sun, Apr 13 • 3:30 PM ET
Moda Center
View Odds Details →

PORTLAND

TRAIL BLAZERSPOR

35-46  |  Home

109
AI Model Win Probability
LAKERS
0%
📊
TRAIL BLAZERS
100%
LAKERS --
TRAIL BLAZERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
231.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.2
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.2 points (Los Angeles)
LakersLAL (-3.5) 0 Trail BlazersPOR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lakers Cover

82.1%

Trail Blazers Cover

17.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around LAL -9.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAL)

LAL By 1-7 points

24.0%

LAL By 8-14 points

26.9%

POR By 1-7 points

11.8%

POR By 8-14 points

3.8%

AI Model Projected Score
120.26
LOS ANGELES
111.05
PORTLAND
Simulated Score
118
LOS ANGELES
112
PORTLAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Lakers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lakers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Lakers (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -9.2
D
Sim Lakers (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 231.3
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 17, 2026 LAL @ POR 116 - 132
Nov 3, 2025 LAL @ POR 123 - 115
Oct 27, 2025 POR @ LAL 122 - 108
Apr 13, 2025 LAL @ POR 81 - 109
Feb 20, 2025 LAL @ POR 110 - 102
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +17.9%
Los Angeles: 44.2% vs Portland: 26.2%
Field Goal % (L5) +9.8%
Los Angeles: 52.4% vs Portland: 42.6%
Blocks (L5) +139.6% more
Portland: 5.0 vs Los Angeles: 2.1
Turnovers (L5) +25.1% more
Portland: 17.4 vs Los Angeles: 13.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAL Score 120.3 81
POR Score 111.1 109
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 26.2 / 44.2 35.7 / 32.1
Assists 23.6 / 24.8 27.0 / 21.0
Blocks 5.0 / 2.1 6.0 / 11.0
Field Goal % 42.6 / 52.4 43.8 / 38.8
Free Throw % 73.7 / 72.6 47.6 / 71.4
Rebounding 48.2 / 41.4 56.0 / 42.0
Steals 10.1 / 9.1 7.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 17.4 / 13.9 16.0 / 21.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
48%MONEY52%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
14%MONEY86%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
57%MONEY43%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAL Advantage
57-35-0 (62.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
POR
44-44-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAL Advantage
51-41-0 (55.4%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
POR
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
LAL
46-46-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.4
POR
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
POR
LAL
POR
LAL
ML
53% 56-49
61% 68-43
55% 49-40
54% 49-42
ATS
62% 65-39-1
61% 67-43-1
55% 49-40
54% 49-42
TTL
56% 58-46-1
61% 66-43-2
100% 89-0
100% 91-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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