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PHOENIX

SUNSPHX

36-45  |  Road

98
FINAL
Sun, Apr 13 • 3:30 PM ET
Golden 1 Center
View Odds Details →

SACRAMENTO

KINGSSAC

39-42  |  Home

109
AI Model Win Probability
SUNS
100%
📊
KINGS
0%
SUNS --
KINGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
218.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
SACRAMENTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Sacramento)
SunsPHX (-3.5) 0 KingsSAC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Suns Cover

34.5%

Kings Cover

65.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SAC -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SAC)

PHX By 1-7 points

20.1%

PHX By 8-14 points

9.3%

SAC By 1-7 points

27.4%

SAC By 8-14 points

21.6%

AI Model Projected Score
107.08
PHOENIX
111.07
SACRAMENTO
Simulated Score
118
PHOENIX
115
SACRAMENTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Kings Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Suns Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Kings (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim Suns (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 218.1
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 233.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 3, 2026 PHX @ SAC 114 - 103
Jan 2, 2026 SAC @ PHX 102 - 129
Nov 26, 2025 PHX @ SAC 112 - 100
Oct 22, 2025 SAC @ PHX 116 - 120
Apr 13, 2025 PHX @ SAC 98 - 109
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +4.3%
Sacramento: 38.2% vs Phoenix: 33.9%
Free Throw % (L5) +2.1%
Sacramento: 85.1% vs Phoenix: 83.0%
Field Goal % (L5) +1.6%
Sacramento: 47.1% vs Phoenix: 45.5%
Steals (L5) +45.0% more
Phoenix: 9.4 vs Sacramento: 5.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PHX Score 107.1 98
SAC Score 111.1 109
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.2 / 33.9 41.2 / 34.1
Assists 23.5 / 26.2 31.0 / 28.0
Blocks 3.0 / 5.4 4.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 47.1 / 45.5 52.3 / 47.6
Free Throw % 85.1 / 83.0 100.0 / 50.0
Rebounding 43.2 / 42.9 43.0 / 37.0
Steals 5.2 / 9.4 6.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 11.2 / 13.6 13.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
16%TICKETS84%
44%MONEY56%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
19%MONEY81%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
59%MONEY41%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHX Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: +1.4
SAC
22-60-0 (26.8%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHX Advantage
50-38-0 (56.8%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: +1.4
SAC
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
⚖️ Over/Under
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: -1.6
SAC
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SAC
PHX
SAC
PHX
ML
55% 55-45
57% 60-45
61% 50-32
51% 45-43
ATS
54% 52-45-3
58% 59-43-3
61% 50-32
51% 45-43
TTL
58% 57-42-1
59% 61-42-2
100% 82-0
100% 88-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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