PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
9-5 | Road
0
ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
6-8 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Zack Wheeler
#45 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Kyle Leahy
#62 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zack Wheeler | None-None | 4.07 | -- | 6.0 | 3 |
| Kyle Leahy | None-None | 1.04 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.07
ERA
Ldr 1.04
--
WHIP
--
6.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
3 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
0%
CARDINALS
100%
PHILLIES
--
CARDINALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.6
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 points (Philadelphia)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around PHI -0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)
PHI By 1-2 runs
19.2%
PHI By 3-4 runs
15.2%
STL By 1-2 runs
17.3%
STL By 3-4 runs
11.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Philadelphia
5.29
PHILADELPHIA
St. Louis
4.71
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
Philadelphia
5
PHILADELPHIA
St. Louis
3
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Phillies
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Phillies
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Phillies (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.6
D
Sim
Phillies (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 23, 2026
STL @ PHI
4 - 6
Aug 22, 2026
STL @ PHI
3 - 12
Aug 21, 2026
STL @ PHI
6 - 7
Aug 12, 2026
PHI @ STL
1 - 7
Aug 11, 2026
PHI @ STL
0 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia
PHI
vs
St. Louis
STL
2
Games Played
▲
162
3.50
Runs / Game
▲
4.44
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.313
.438
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.378
.724
▲
OPS
.691
3
Home Runs
▲
167
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+19.0% more
Philadelphia: 0.5
vs
St. Louis: 0.3
Errors (L5)
+13.0% more
Philadelphia: 0.6
vs
St. Louis: 0.4
Slugging Pct (Season)
+6.0%
Philadelphia: 43.8%
vs
St. Louis: 37.8%
OPS (Season)
+3.3%
Philadelphia: 72.4%
vs
St. Louis: 69.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHI Score
5.3
0
STL Score
4.7
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.6
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.9 / 6.7
10.0 / 3.0
Home Runs
0.3 / 0.5
2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.2 / 7.8
9.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
11.1 / 9.8
21.0 / 3.0
Walks
3.6 / 3.3
1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
STL
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
STL
Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
PHI
STL
PHI
ML
53%
85-74
59%
97-67
52%
84-77
49%
80-84
ATS
56%
89-70
65%
107-57
53%
85-76
51%
83-81
TTL
46%
68-81-10
57%
88-67-9
50%
76-75-10
51%
78-76-9
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