PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
8-5 | Road
4
ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
6-7 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jose Alvarado
#46 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Pedro Pages
#43 | Catcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jose Alvarado | None-None | 1.23 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Pedro Pages | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.23
ERA
--
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
1
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
0%
CARDINALS
100%
PHILLIES
--
CARDINALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Philadelphia)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around PHI -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)
PHI By 1-2 runs
18.6%
PHI By 3-4 runs
13.8%
STL By 1-2 runs
18.3%
STL By 3-4 runs
13.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Philadelphia
5.08
PHILADELPHIA
St. Louis
4.99
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
Philadelphia
5
PHILADELPHIA
St. Louis
3
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Phillies
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Phillies
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Phillies (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.1
D
Sim
Phillies (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 10.1
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 23, 2026
STL @ PHI
4 - 6
Aug 22, 2026
STL @ PHI
3 - 12
Aug 21, 2026
STL @ PHI
6 - 7
Aug 12, 2026
PHI @ STL
1 - 7
Aug 11, 2026
PHI @ STL
0 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia
PHI
vs
St. Louis
STL
2
Games Played
▲
162
3.50
Runs / Game
▲
4.44
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.313
.438
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.378
.724
▲
OPS
.691
3
Home Runs
▲
167
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+29.0% more
Philadelphia: 0.8
vs
St. Louis: 0.5
Strikeouts (L5)
+20.7% more
Philadelphia: 9.2
vs
St. Louis: 7.3
Slugging Pct (Season)
+6.0%
Philadelphia: 43.8%
vs
St. Louis: 37.8%
OPS (Season)
+3.3%
Philadelphia: 72.4%
vs
St. Louis: 69.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHI Score
5.1
4
STL Score
5.0
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 0.4
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.8 / 6.1
9.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
0.5 / 0.8
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.3 / 9.2
10.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
11.7 / 9.2
10.0 / 11.0
Walks
3.9 / 3.9
3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
STL
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
STL
Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
PHI
STL
PHI
ML
53%
85-74
59%
97-67
52%
84-77
49%
80-84
ATS
56%
89-70
65%
107-57
53%
85-76
51%
83-81
TTL
46%
68-81-10
57%
88-67-9
50%
76-75-10
51%
78-76-9
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