MILWAUKEE
BREWERSMIL
8-6 | Road
4
ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
7-7 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Trevor Megill
#29 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Gabriel Moreno
#14 | Catcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Megill | None-None | 5.79 | -- | 0.1 | -- |
| Gabriel Moreno | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
5.79
ERA
--
--
WHIP
--
0.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
--
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
BREWERS
100%
DIAMONDBACKS
0%
BREWERS
--
DIAMONDBACKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Arizona)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ARI -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)
MIL By 1-2 runs
17.7%
MIL By 3-4 runs
12.4%
ARI By 1-2 runs
19.0%
ARI By 3-4 runs
14.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Milwaukee
4.81
MILWAUKEE
Arizona
5.22
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
Milwaukee
5
MILWAUKEE
Arizona
4
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Diamondbacks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Brewers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Diamondbacks (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.4
D
Sim
Brewers (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 5, 2026
MIL @ ARI
3 - 2
Jul 4, 2026
MIL @ ARI
3 - 4
Jul 3, 2026
MIL @ ARI
7 - 4
Apr 30, 2026
ARI @ MIL
1 - 13
Apr 29, 2026
ARI @ MIL
6 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Milwaukee
MIL
vs
Arizona
ARI
162
Games Played
162
5.14
▲
Runs / Game
4.56
.258
▲
Avg (AVG)
.246
.341
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.318
.403
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.743
▲
OPS
.720
154
Home Runs
▲
166
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+28.0% more
Arizona: 1.2
vs
Milwaukee: 1.0
Home Runs (Season)
+7.8% more
Arizona: 166.0
vs
Milwaukee: 154.0
Strikeouts (L5)
+29.3% more
Milwaukee: 7.7
vs
Arizona: 5.4
Errors (L5)
+22.0% more
Milwaukee: 0.5
vs
Arizona: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIL Score
4.8
4
ARI Score
5.2
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.5
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.3 / 8.8
10.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 1.0
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
5.4 / 7.7
6.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
12.7 / 13.9
15.0 / 10.0
Walks
2.8 / 3.1
2.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL
Advantage
106-60-0
(63.9%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
ARI
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
ARI
Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7%
Total +/-: +0.8
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
MIL
ARI
MIL
ML
54%
87-74
62%
101-61
54%
86-74
52%
84-78
ATS
57%
91-70
58%
94-68
56%
89-71
48%
78-84
TTL
52%
80-73-8
40%
62-92-8
49%
73-77-9
50%
77-77-8
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