ORLANDO
MAGICORL
40-40 | Road
129
INDIANA
PACERSIND
49-31 | Home
115
AI Model Win Probability
MAGIC
100%
PACERS
0%
MAGIC
--
PACERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
234.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
INDIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (Indiana)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around IND -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IND)
ORL By 1-7 points
24.3%
ORL By 8-14 points
13.8%
IND By 1-7 points
26.2%
IND By 8-14 points
16.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Orlando
116.82
ORLANDO
Indiana
117.76
INDIANA
Simulated Score
Orlando
118
ORLANDO
Indiana
122
INDIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Pacers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pacers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Pacers (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -0.9
D
Sim
Pacers (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 234.6
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 240.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 23, 2026
IND @ ORL
128 - 126
Jan 4, 2026
IND @ ORL
127 - 135
Dec 31, 2025
ORL @ IND
112 - 110
Apr 11, 2025
ORL @ IND
129 - 115
Nov 13, 2024
IND @ ORL
90 - 94
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+71.1% more
Indiana: 8.5
vs
Orlando: 5.0
Assists (L5)
+20.8% more
Indiana: 28.8
vs
Orlando: 23.8
Turnovers (L5)
+26.1% more
Orlando: 12.3
vs
Indiana: 9.1
Steals (L5)
+24.0% more
Orlando: 8.4
vs
Indiana: 6.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ORL Score
116.8
129
IND Score
117.8
115
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.6 / 36.6
41.4 / 40.6
Assists
28.8 / 23.8
24.0 / 32.0
Blocks
8.5 / 5.0
7.0 / 11.0
Field Goal %
46.4 / 45.0
44.9 / 57.6
Free Throw %
76.5 / 78.9
65.7 / 85.7
Rebounding
45.5 / 45.2
44.0 / 35.0
Steals
6.4 / 8.4
8.0 / 14.0
Turnovers
9.1 / 12.3
20.0 / 20.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ORL
Advantage
49-42-0
(53.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-: -1.2
IND
19-63-0
(23.2%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ORL
43-48-0
(47.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-: -1.2
IND
Advantage
40-42-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
ORL
47-44-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.7
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IND
ORL
IND
ORL
ML
48%
47-50
61%
65-42
54%
45-38
56%
51-40
ATS
59%
57-40
64%
68-38-1
54%
45-38
56%
51-40
TTL
54%
52-45
57%
61-46
100%
83-0
100%
91-0
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