Home / NBA Projections NBA / Hornets @ Celtics CHA @ BOS

CHARLOTTE

HORNETSCHA

19-61  |  Road

94
FINAL
Fri, Apr 11 • 7:30 PM ET
TD Garden
View Odds Details →

BOSTON

CELTICSBOS

59-21  |  Home

130
AI Model Win Probability
HORNETS
100%
📊
CELTICS
0%
HORNETS --
CELTICS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
217.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.4
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.4 points (Boston)
HornetsCHA (-3.5) 0 CelticsBOS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Hornets Cover

5.0%

Celtics Cover

95.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BOS -16.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)

CHA By 1-7 points

3.7%

CHA By 8-14 points

0.7%

BOS By 1-7 points

13.0%

BOS By 8-14 points

23.7%

AI Model Projected Score
100.51
CHARLOTTE
116.96
BOSTON
Simulated Score
118
CHARLOTTE
125
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Celtics Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Celtics Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Celtics (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -16.4
D
Sim Celtics (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 217.5
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 243.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 7, 2026 CHA @ BOS 102 - 113
Mar 29, 2026 BOS @ CHA 114 - 99
Mar 4, 2026 CHA @ BOS 118 - 89
Apr 13, 2025 CHA @ BOS 86 - 93
Apr 11, 2025 CHA @ BOS 94 - 130
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +47.5% more
Boston: 4.7 vs Charlotte: 3.2
Steals (L5) +15.6% more
Boston: 5.3 vs Charlotte: 4.6
Assists (L5) +12.1% more
Boston: 25.7 vs Charlotte: 22.9
Rebounding (L5) +11.3% more
Boston: 46.2 vs Charlotte: 41.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHA Score 100.5 94
BOS Score 117.0 130
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.5 / 30.4 45.1 / 37.5
Assists 25.7 / 22.9 35.0 / 25.0
Blocks 4.7 / 3.2 8.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 44.6 / 45.3 51.6 / 38.7
Free Throw % 80.4 / 76.3 75.0 / 70.0
Rebounding 46.2 / 41.5 52.0 / 48.0
Steals 5.3 / 4.6 9.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 13.8 / 16.4 10.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
12%TICKETS88%
52%MONEY48%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
32%MONEY68%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
81%TICKETS19%
74%MONEY26%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHA
45-39-0 (53.6%)
Margin: 4.4 ATS +/-: +4.4
BOS Advantage
59-30-0 (66.3%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +2.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHA Advantage
50-34-0 (59.5%)
Margin: 4.4 ATS +/-: +4.4
BOS
51-38-0 (57.3%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +2.2
⚖️ Over/Under
CHA
32-52-0
O: 38.1% / U: 61.9% Total +/-: -3.4
BOS
32-57-0
O: 36.0% / U: 64.0% Total +/-: -3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
CHA
BOS
CHA
ML
57% 61-46
61% 60-39
53% 47-41
48% 40-44
ATS
59% 61-43-3
60% 59-40
53% 47-41
48% 40-44
TTL
56% 60-47
58% 57-42
100% 88-0
100% 84-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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