Home / NBA Projections NBA / Raptors @ Mavericks TOR @ DAL

TORONTO

RAPTORSTOR

30-50  |  Road

102
FINAL
Fri, Apr 11 • 8:30 PM ET
American Airlines Center
View Odds Details →

DALLAS

MAVERICKSDAL

38-42  |  Home

124
AI Model Win Probability
RAPTORS
0%
📊
MAVERICKS
100%
RAPTORS --
MAVERICKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
222.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.8
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.8 points (Toronto)
RaptorsTOR (-3.5) 0 MavericksDAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Raptors Cover

56.9%

Mavericks Cover

43.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around TOR -1.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)

TOR By 1-7 points

26.7%

TOR By 8-14 points

18.1%

DAL By 1-7 points

23.4%

DAL By 8-14 points

12.5%

AI Model Projected Score
112.34
TORONTO
110.59
DALLAS
Simulated Score
118
TORONTO
122
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Raptors Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mavericks Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Raptors (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.8
D
Sim Mavericks (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 222.9
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 240.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 8, 2026 DAL @ TOR 92 - 122
Oct 26, 2025 TOR @ DAL 129 - 139
Apr 11, 2025 TOR @ DAL 102 - 124
Dec 7, 2024 DAL @ TOR 125 - 118
Feb 28, 2024 DAL @ TOR 136 - 125
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +40.4% more
Toronto: 10.5 vs Dallas: 6.3
Assists (L5) +22.1% more
Toronto: 31.7 vs Dallas: 24.7
Rebounding (L5) +17.0% more
Toronto: 48.4 vs Dallas: 40.1
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +4.2%
Toronto: 35.9% vs Dallas: 31.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOR Score 112.3 102
DAL Score 110.6 124
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.7 / 35.9 44.1 / 28.2
Assists 24.7 / 31.7 34.0 / 22.0
Blocks 5.3 / 3.3 10.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 48.0 / 46.4 55.1 / 40.0
Free Throw % 72.0 / 72.4 64.7 / 61.1
Rebounding 40.1 / 48.4 56.0 / 43.0
Steals 6.3 / 10.5 8.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 16.6 / 13.7 20.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
17%TICKETS83%
41%MONEY59%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
35%MONEY65%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
56%MONEY44%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR Advantage
49-40-0 (55.1%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
DAL
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR Advantage
46-43-0 (51.7%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
DAL
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
37-52-0
O: 41.6% / U: 58.4% Total +/-: -1.8
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
TOR
DAL
TOR
ML
62% 63-39
55% 57-47
54% 44-37
55% 48-39
ATS
67% 68-34
61% 62-40-2
54% 44-37
55% 48-39
TTL
59% 60-41-1
60% 62-42
100% 81-0
100% 87-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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