Home / NBA Projections NBA / Grizzlies @ Nuggets MEM @ DEN

MEMPHIS

GRIZZLIESMEM

47-33  |  Road

109
FINAL
Fri, Apr 11 • 9:00 PM ET
Ball Arena
View Odds Details →

DENVER

NUGGETSDEN

48-32  |  Home

117
AI Model Win Probability
GRIZZLIES
100%
📊
NUGGETS
0%
GRIZZLIES --
NUGGETS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
236.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.3
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.3 points (Denver)
GrizzliesMEM (-3.5) 0 NuggetsDEN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Grizzlies Cover

15.1%

Nuggets Cover

84.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DEN -10.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)

MEM By 1-7 points

10.2%

MEM By 8-14 points

3.1%

DEN By 1-7 points

22.6%

DEN By 8-14 points

27.3%

AI Model Projected Score
113.27
MEMPHIS
123.61
DENVER
Simulated Score
118
MEMPHIS
122
DENVER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Nuggets Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Nuggets Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Nuggets (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -10.3
D
Sim Nuggets (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 236.9
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 240.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 8, 2026 MEM @ DEN 119 - 136
Mar 18, 2026 DEN @ MEM 118 - 125
Feb 11, 2026 MEM @ DEN 116 - 122
Nov 24, 2025 DEN @ MEM 125 - 115
Apr 11, 2025 MEM @ DEN 109 - 117
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +85.7% more
Denver: 5.7 vs Memphis: 3.1
Assists (L5) +27.0% more
Denver: 30.5 vs Memphis: 24.0
Field Goal % (L5) +3.7%
Denver: 51.1% vs Memphis: 47.4%
Steals (L5) +14.4% more
Memphis: 7.3 vs Denver: 6.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MEM Score 113.3 109
DEN Score 123.6 117
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.5 / 39.6 20.8 / 32.6
Assists 30.5 / 24.0 32.0 / 26.0
Blocks 5.7 / 3.1 2.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 51.1 / 47.4 48.4 / 45.1
Free Throw % 76.4 / 77.7 77.4 / 68.4
Rebounding 45.7 / 45.4 52.0 / 41.0
Steals 6.2 / 7.3 9.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 13.4 / 14.8 13.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
19%TICKETS81%
18%MONEY82%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
26%MONEY74%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
65%MONEY35%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MEM
25-57-0 (30.5%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
DEN Advantage
56-32-0 (63.6%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MEM
37-45-0 (45.1%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
DEN Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +1.4
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8% Total +/-: +3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEN
MEM
DEN
MEM
ML
54% 57-48
57% 59-44
55% 47-39
50% 41-41
ATS
63% 65-38-2
63% 65-38
55% 47-39
50% 41-41
TTL
54% 56-48-1
70% 71-31-1
100% 86-0
100% 82-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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