Home / NBA Projections NBA / Rockets @ Lakers HOU @ LAL

HOUSTON

ROCKETSHOU

52-28  |  Road

109
FINAL
Fri, Apr 11 • 10:30 PM ET
Crypto.com Arena
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

LAKERSLAL

49-31  |  Home

140
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKETS
0%
📊
LAKERS
100%
ROCKETS --
LAKERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
237.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.7
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.7 points (Houston)
RocketsHOU (-3.5) 0 LakersLAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rockets Cover

71.5%

Lakers Cover

28.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around HOU -5.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)

HOU By 1-7 points

27.0%

HOU By 8-14 points

23.9%

LAL By 1-7 points

17.5%

LAL By 8-14 points

7.2%

AI Model Projected Score
121.53
HOUSTON
115.86
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
118
HOUSTON
124
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Rockets Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lakers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Rockets (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.7
D
Sim Lakers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 237.4
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 242.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 1, 2026 LAL @ HOU 98 - 78
Apr 29, 2026 HOU @ LAL 99 - 93
Apr 26, 2026 LAL @ HOU 96 - 115
Apr 24, 2026 LAL @ HOU 112 - 108
Apr 21, 2026 HOU @ LAL 94 - 101
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +49.1% more
Houston: 5.1 vs Los Angeles: 2.6
Rebounding (L5) +10.5% more
Houston: 45.9 vs Los Angeles: 41.1
Assists (L5) +9.5% more
Houston: 25.6 vs Los Angeles: 23.2
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +1.9%
Houston: 42.5% vs Los Angeles: 40.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HOU Score 121.5 109
LAL Score 115.9 140
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 40.5 / 42.5 51.4 / 35.3
Assists 23.2 / 25.6 28.0 / 22.0
Blocks 2.6 / 5.1 1.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 48.1 / 49.6 60.9 / 45.6
Free Throw % 78.9 / 65.7 60.0 / 75.0
Rebounding 41.1 / 45.9 42.0 / 37.0
Steals 8.1 / 8.4 11.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 14.4 / 13.9 13.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
14%TICKETS86%
22%MONEY78%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
21%MONEY79%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
82%MONEY18%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
54-34-0 (61.4%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
LAL Advantage
57-35-0 (62.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
38-50-0 (43.2%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
LAL Advantage
51-41-0 (55.4%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9% Total +/-: -0.3
LAL
46-46-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAL
HOU
LAL
HOU
ML
61% 68-43
61% 69-44
54% 49-42
59% 51-35
ATS
61% 67-43-1
62% 70-43
54% 49-42
59% 51-35
TTL
61% 66-43-2
51% 58-55
100% 91-0
100% 86-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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