Home / MLB Projections MLB / Angels @ Astros LAA @ HOU

LOS ANGELES

ANGELSLAA

8-4  |  Road

3
FINAL
Fri, Apr 11 • 8:10 PM ET
Daikin Park
View Odds Details →

HOUSTON

ASTROSHOU

5-7  |  Home

14
Probable Pitchers
Nolan Schanuel
STARTING PITCHER

Nolan Schanuel

#18 | First Base
@
Ronel Blanco
STARTING PITCHER

Ronel Blanco

#56 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Nolan Schanuel None-None -- -- -- --
Ronel Blanco None-None 6.94 -- 5.0 7
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 6.94
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 5.0
-- K (Strikeouts) 7
AI Model Win Probability
ANGELS
100%
📊
ASTROS
0%
ANGELS --
ASTROS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.7
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 points (Houston)
AngelsLAA (-3.5) 0 AstrosHOU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Angels Cover

43.4%

Astros Cover

56.6%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around HOU -0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)

LAA By 1-2 runs

17.1%

LAA By 3-4 runs

11.6%

HOU By 1-2 runs

19.3%

HOU By 3-4 runs

15.4%

AI Model Projected Score
3.58
LOS ANGELES
4.24
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
4
LOS ANGELES
5
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Astros Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Astros Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Astros (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.7
D
Sim Astros (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.8
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 20, 2026 LAA @ HOU 18 - 3
Aug 19, 2026 LAA @ HOU 2 - 3
Aug 18, 2026 LAA @ HOU 3 - 1
Jul 29, 2026 HOU @ LAA 7 - 4
Jul 28, 2026 HOU @ LAA 3 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles LAA
vs
Houston HOU
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.04 ▲
Runs / Game
3.00
.234 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.169
.310 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.369 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.354
.679 ▲
OPS
.582
154 ▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +40.3% more
Houston: 10.5 vs Los Angeles: 7.5
Walks (L5) +13.8% more
Houston: 4.1 vs Los Angeles: 3.6
Home Runs (Season) +97.4% more
Los Angeles: 154.0 vs Houston: 4.0
Home Runs (L5) +88.6% more
Los Angeles: 3.8 vs Houston: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAA Score 3.6 3
HOU Score 4.2 14
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.6 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 8.2 / 9.9 17.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 0.4 / 3.8 3.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 10.5 / 7.5 10.0 / 3.0
Total Bases 10.8 / 22.5 27.0 / 14.0
Walks 4.1 / 3.6 2.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
49%MONEY51%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
53%MONEY47%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
73%MONEY27%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAA
62-100-0 (38.3%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
HOU Advantage
81-83-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAA
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
HOU Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4% Total +/-: +0.3
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
LAA
HOU
LAA
ML
50% 81-82
59% 96-66
47% 77-87
55% 89-73
ATS
56% 91-72
60% 97-65
55% 90-74
51% 82-80
TTL
45% 70-84-9
53% 83-74-5
45% 69-86-9
52% 82-75-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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