PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
8-4 | Road
0
ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
5-7 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Aaron Nola
#27 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Andre Pallante
#53 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | None-None | 5.51 | -- | 5.0 | 7 |
| Andre Pallante | None-None | 2.20 | -- | 7.0 | 4 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
5.51
ERA
Ldr 2.20
--
WHIP
--
5.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 7.0
7 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
4
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
100%
CARDINALS
0%
PHILLIES
--
CARDINALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (St. Louis)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around STL -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)
PHI By 1-2 runs
18.2%
PHI By 3-4 runs
13.1%
STL By 1-2 runs
18.7%
STL By 3-4 runs
14.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Philadelphia
5.16
PHILADELPHIA
St. Louis
5.31
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
Philadelphia
5
PHILADELPHIA
St. Louis
4
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Cardinals
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Phillies
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Cardinals (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.1
D
Sim
Phillies (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 10.5
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 23, 2026
STL @ PHI
4 - 6
Aug 22, 2026
STL @ PHI
3 - 12
Aug 21, 2026
STL @ PHI
6 - 7
Aug 12, 2026
PHI @ STL
1 - 7
Aug 11, 2026
PHI @ STL
0 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia
PHI
vs
St. Louis
STL
2
Games Played
▲
162
3.50
Runs / Game
▲
4.44
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.313
.438
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.378
.724
▲
OPS
.691
3
Home Runs
▲
167
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+5466.7% more
St. Louis: 167.0
vs
Philadelphia: 3.0
Errors (L5)
+47.0% more
St. Louis: 0.5
vs
Philadelphia: 0.0
Walks (L5)
+44.0% more
St. Louis: 4.9
vs
Philadelphia: 3.4
Runs per Game (Season)
+26.9% more
St. Louis: 4.4
vs
Philadelphia: 3.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHI Score
5.2
0
STL Score
5.3
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.0
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.7 / 7.7
9.0 / 3.0
Home Runs
0.7 / 1.1
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.9 / 8.8
4.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
12.5 / 12.3
10.0 / 3.0
Walks
4.9 / 3.4
2.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
STL
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
STL
Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
PHI
STL
PHI
ML
53%
85-74
59%
97-67
52%
84-77
49%
80-84
ATS
56%
89-70
65%
107-57
53%
85-76
51%
83-81
TTL
46%
68-81-10
57%
88-67-9
50%
76-75-10
51%
78-76-9
Contextual Game News
Cardinals Eye Another Dustin May-Style Signing to Bolster Rotati…
Alex Cora Joins Growing List of Unavailable Managers for Seattle…
Phillies' 2027 Rotation Projection: Wheeler and Sanchez Lead Sta…
Alex Cora Rejects Phillies Again, Opts to Sit Out 2027 Season
Phillies' Managerial Plans Thrown Into Disarray as Alex Cora Opt…