MILWAUKEE
BREWERSMIL
7-6 | Road
7
ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
7-6 | Home
0
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Trevor Megill
#29 | Relief Pitcher@
👤
STARTING PITCHER
Ryan Thompson
#81 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Megill | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
| Ryan Thompson | None-None | 3.38 | -- | 1.1 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
0.00 Ldr
ERA
3.38
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.1
2 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
BREWERS
100%
DIAMONDBACKS
0%
BREWERS
--
DIAMONDBACKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Arizona)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ARI -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)
MIL By 1-2 runs
15.0%
MIL By 3-4 runs
9.2%
ARI By 1-2 runs
19.7%
ARI By 3-4 runs
17.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Milwaukee
4.49
MILWAUKEE
Arizona
5.98
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
Milwaukee
5
MILWAUKEE
Arizona
4
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Diamondbacks
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Brewers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Diamondbacks (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.5
D
Sim
Brewers (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 10.5
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 5, 2026
MIL @ ARI
3 - 2
Jul 4, 2026
MIL @ ARI
3 - 4
Jul 3, 2026
MIL @ ARI
7 - 4
Apr 30, 2026
ARI @ MIL
1 - 13
Apr 29, 2026
ARI @ MIL
6 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Milwaukee
MIL
vs
Arizona
ARI
162
Games Played
162
5.14
▲
Runs / Game
4.56
.258
▲
Avg (AVG)
.246
.341
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.318
.403
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.743
▲
OPS
.720
154
Home Runs
▲
166
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+30.3% more
Arizona: 1.9
vs
Milwaukee: 1.4
Errors (L5)
+18.0% more
Arizona: 0.5
vs
Milwaukee: 0.3
Total Bases (L5)
+13.9% more
Arizona: 17.0
vs
Milwaukee: 14.9
Home Runs (Season)
+7.8% more
Arizona: 166.0
vs
Milwaukee: 154.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIL Score
4.5
7
ARI Score
6.0
0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.3
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.9 / 8.2
4.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
1.9 / 1.4
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
6.2 / 9.0
4.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
17.0 / 14.9
4.0 / 12.0
Walks
2.7 / 4.2
3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL
Advantage
106-60-0
(63.9%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
ARI
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
ARI
Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7%
Total +/-: +0.8
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
MIL
ARI
MIL
ML
54%
87-74
62%
101-61
54%
86-74
52%
84-78
ATS
57%
91-70
58%
94-68
56%
89-71
48%
78-84
TTL
52%
80-73-8
40%
62-92-8
49%
73-77-9
50%
77-77-8
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