CLEVELAND
CAVALIERSCLE
63-16 | Road
112
INDIANA
PACERSIND
48-31 | Home
114
AI Model Win Probability
CAVALIERS
100%
PACERS
0%
CAVALIERS
--
PACERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
247.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
INDIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Indiana)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around IND -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IND)
CLE By 1-7 points
25.2%
CLE By 8-14 points
15.1%
IND By 1-7 points
25.5%
IND By 8-14 points
15.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Cleveland
123.42
CLEVELAND
Indiana
123.54
INDIANA
Simulated Score
Cleveland
118
CLEVELAND
Indiana
112
INDIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Pacers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cavaliers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Pacers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -0.1
D
Sim
Cavaliers (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 247.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 5, 2026
IND @ CLE
108 - 117
Jan 6, 2026
CLE @ IND
120 - 116
Dec 1, 2025
CLE @ IND
135 - 119
Nov 21, 2025
IND @ CLE
109 - 120
May 13, 2025
IND @ CLE
114 - 105
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+84.3% more
Indiana: 7.3
vs
Cleveland: 4.0
Free Throw % (L5)
+11.9%
Indiana: 79.7%
vs
Cleveland: 67.8%
Turnovers (L5)
+38.9% more
Cleveland: 14.1
vs
Indiana: 8.6
Steals (L5)
+20.6% more
Cleveland: 10.2
vs
Indiana: 8.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CLE Score
123.4
112
IND Score
123.5
114
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.3 / 39.1
34.1 / 45.9
Assists
29.2 / 30.8
28.0 / 24.0
Blocks
7.3 / 4.0
11.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
46.4 / 50.5
46.2 / 43.9
Free Throw %
79.7 / 67.8
70.0 / 69.2
Rebounding
45.2 / 43.5
46.0 / 50.0
Steals
8.1 / 10.2
3.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
8.6 / 14.1
10.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
Advantage
60-40-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: -2.4
IND
19-63-0
(23.2%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
40-60-0
(40.0%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: -2.4
IND
Advantage
40-42-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
52-48-0
O: 52.0% / U: 48.0%
Total +/-: +0.9
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IND
CLE
IND
CLE
ML
48%
47-50
60%
69-46
54%
45-38
56%
55-44
ATS
59%
57-40
67%
75-37-3
54%
45-38
56%
55-44
TTL
54%
52-45
59%
68-47
100%
83-0
100%
99-0
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