Home / NBA Projections NBA / Celtics @ Magic BOS @ ORL

BOSTON

CELTICSBOS

59-20  |  Road

76
FINAL
Wed, Apr 9 • 7:00 PM ET
Kia Center
View Odds Details →

ORLANDO

MAGICORL

39-40  |  Home

96
AI Model Win Probability
CELTICS
0%
📊
MAGIC
100%
CELTICS --
MAGIC --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
234.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.1
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.1 points (Boston)
CelticsBOS (-3.5) 0 MagicORL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Celtics Cover

66.1%

Magic Cover

33.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around BOS -4.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)

BOS By 1-7 points

27.4%

BOS By 8-14 points

21.8%

ORL By 1-7 points

19.9%

ORL By 8-14 points

9.1%

AI Model Projected Score
119.24
BOSTON
115.1
ORLANDO
Simulated Score
118
BOSTON
105
ORLANDO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Celtics Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Celtics Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Celtics (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.1
D
Sim Celtics (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 234.3
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 12, 2026 ORL @ BOS 108 - 113
Nov 23, 2025 ORL @ BOS 129 - 138
Nov 9, 2025 BOS @ ORL 111 - 107
Nov 7, 2025 BOS @ ORL 110 - 123
Apr 29, 2025 ORL @ BOS 89 - 120
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +14.8% more
Boston: 28.5 vs Orlando: 24.3
Rebounding (L5) +9.6% more
Boston: 47.8 vs Orlando: 43.2
Steals (L5) +83.5% more
Orlando: 10.1 vs Boston: 5.5
Blocks (L5) +32.9% more
Orlando: 6.0 vs Boston: 4.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BOS Score 119.2 76
ORL Score 115.1 96
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.1 / 38.4 35.6 / 17.5
Assists 24.3 / 28.5 23.0 / 20.0
Blocks 6.0 / 4.5 3.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 47.1 / 47.4 40.7 / 39.0
Free Throw % 80.8 / 78.9 75.0 / 83.3
Rebounding 43.2 / 47.8 49.0 / 43.0
Steals 10.1 / 5.5 5.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 13.4 / 12.7 10.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
59%MONEY41%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
36%MONEY64%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
86%TICKETS14%
83%MONEY17%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS Advantage
59-30-0 (66.3%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +2.2
ORL
49-42-0 (53.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS Advantage
51-38-0 (57.3%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +2.2
ORL
43-48-0 (47.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
32-57-0
O: 36.0% / U: 64.0% Total +/-: -3.2
ORL
47-44-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ORL
BOS
ORL
BOS
ML
61% 65-42
57% 61-46
56% 51-40
53% 47-41
ATS
64% 68-38-1
59% 61-43-3
56% 51-40
53% 47-41
TTL
57% 61-46
56% 60-47
100% 91-0
100% 88-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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