Home / NBA Projections NBA / Lakers @ Mavericks LAL @ DAL

LOS ANGELES

LAKERSLAL

48-31  |  Road

112
FINAL
Wed, Apr 9 • 7:30 PM ET
American Airlines Center
View Odds Details →

DALLAS

MAVERICKSDAL

38-41  |  Home

97
AI Model Win Probability
LAKERS
100%
📊
MAVERICKS
0%
LAKERS --
MAVERICKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
231.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Dallas)
LakersLAL (-3.5) 0 MavericksDAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lakers Cover

44.0%

Mavericks Cover

56.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DAL -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)

LAL By 1-7 points

23.6%

LAL By 8-14 points

12.9%

DAL By 1-7 points

26.6%

DAL By 8-14 points

17.8%

AI Model Projected Score
115.11
LOS ANGELES
116.63
DALLAS
Simulated Score
118
LOS ANGELES
115
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mavericks Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lakers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Mavericks (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.5
D
Sim Lakers (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 231.7
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 233.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 5, 2026 LAL @ DAL 128 - 134
Feb 12, 2026 DAL @ LAL 104 - 124
Jan 24, 2026 LAL @ DAL 116 - 110
Nov 28, 2025 DAL @ LAL 119 - 129
Oct 15, 2025 DAL @ LAL 121 - 94
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +27.1% more
Dallas: 5.0 vs Los Angeles: 3.9
Steals (L5) +23.5% more
Dallas: 6.4 vs Los Angeles: 5.2
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +13.9%
Los Angeles: 44.2% vs Dallas: 30.2%
Free Throw % (L5) +7.1%
Los Angeles: 80.3% vs Dallas: 73.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAL Score 115.1 112
DAL Score 116.6 97
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.2 / 44.2 34.6 / 33.3
Assists 22.0 / 23.7 30.0 / 22.0
Blocks 5.0 / 3.9 6.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 47.0 / 48.9 50.0 / 46.7
Free Throw % 73.2 / 80.3 69.6 / 76.2
Rebounding 41.2 / 42.1 38.0 / 39.0
Steals 6.4 / 5.2 6.0 / 14.0
Turnovers 14.9 / 15.5 20.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
90%TICKETS10%
93%MONEY7%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
83%TICKETS17%
87%MONEY13%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
90%MONEY10%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAL Advantage
57-35-0 (62.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
DAL
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAL Advantage
51-41-0 (55.4%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
DAL
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
LAL
46-46-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.4
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
LAL
DAL
LAL
ML
62% 63-39
61% 68-43
54% 44-37
54% 49-42
ATS
67% 68-34
61% 67-43-1
54% 44-37
54% 49-42
TTL
59% 60-41-1
61% 66-43-2
100% 81-0
100% 91-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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