CHARLOTTE
HORNETSCHA
19-60 | Road
96
TORONTO
RAPTORSTOR
29-50 | Home
126
AI Model Win Probability
HORNETS
100%
RAPTORS
0%
HORNETS
--
RAPTORS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
211.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.6
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.6 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around TOR -5.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
CHA By 1-7 points
17.7%
CHA By 8-14 points
7.3%
TOR By 1-7 points
27.1%
TOR By 8-14 points
23.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Charlotte
103.07
CHARLOTTE
Toronto
108.62
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Charlotte
108
CHARLOTTE
Toronto
115
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Raptors
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Raptors
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Raptors (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.6
D
Sim
Raptors (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 211.7
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 7, 2026
TOR @ CHA
97 - 96
Dec 5, 2025
CHA @ TOR
111 - 86
Nov 29, 2025
TOR @ CHA
111 - 118
Nov 17, 2025
CHA @ TOR
108 - 110
Apr 9, 2025
CHA @ TOR
96 - 126
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+166.6% more
Toronto: 11.8
vs
Charlotte: 4.4
Assists (L5)
+27.2% more
Toronto: 29.0
vs
Charlotte: 22.8
Blocks (L5)
+21.0% more
Toronto: 3.9
vs
Charlotte: 3.2
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+5.7%
Toronto: 35.6%
vs
Charlotte: 29.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHA Score
103.1
96
TOR Score
108.6
126
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.6 / 29.9
36.5 / 31.4
Assists
29.0 / 22.8
37.0 / 23.0
Blocks
3.9 / 3.2
2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
46.0 / 46.0
47.1 / 43.9
Free Throw %
71.1 / 73.8
75.0 / 81.3
Rebounding
45.0 / 41.8
55.0 / 41.0
Steals
11.8 / 4.4
8.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
16.1 / 15.1
9.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHA
45-39-0
(53.6%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
TOR
Advantage
49-40-0
(55.1%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHA
Advantage
50-34-0
(59.5%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
TOR
46-43-0
(51.7%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
CHA
32-52-0
O: 38.1% / U: 61.9%
Total +/-: -3.4
TOR
37-52-0
O: 41.6% / U: 58.4%
Total +/-: -1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
CHA
TOR
CHA
ML
55%
57-47
61%
60-39
55%
48-39
48%
40-44
ATS
61%
62-40-2
60%
59-40
55%
48-39
48%
40-44
TTL
60%
62-42
58%
57-42
100%
87-0
100%
84-0
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