MIAMI
HEATMIA
36-43 | Road
111
CHICAGO
BULLSCHI
36-43 | Home
119
AI Model Win Probability
HEAT
100%
BULLS
0%
HEAT
--
BULLS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
243.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.2
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 points (Chicago)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CHI -1.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHI)
MIA By 1-7 points
24.0%
MIA By 8-14 points
13.4%
CHI By 1-7 points
26.4%
CHI By 8-14 points
17.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
120.87
MIAMI
Chicago
122.08
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
Miami
112
MIAMI
Chicago
108
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Bulls
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Heat
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Bulls (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -1.2
D
Sim
Heat (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 243.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 220.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 1, 2026
CHI @ MIA
91 - 134
Jan 31, 2026
CHI @ MIA
125 - 118
Jan 29, 2026
MIA @ CHI
116 - 113
Nov 21, 2025
MIA @ CHI
143 - 107
Apr 16, 2025
MIA @ CHI
109 - 90
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+41.3% more
Chicago: 16.7
vs
Miami: 11.8
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.3%
Chicago: 49.8%
vs
Miami: 47.5%
Free Throw % (L5)
+1.8%
Chicago: 82.0%
vs
Miami: 80.2%
Blocks (L5)
+16.2% more
Miami: 4.2
vs
Chicago: 3.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
120.9
111
CHI Score
122.1
119
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.7 / 41.2
37.8 / 36.4
Assists
27.8 / 25.9
33.0 / 28.0
Blocks
3.5 / 4.2
7.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
49.8 / 47.5
51.7 / 47.8
Free Throw %
82.0 / 80.2
100.0 / 64.7
Rebounding
47.2 / 47.0
46.0 / 39.0
Steals
7.4 / 7.9
8.0 / 11.0
Turnovers
16.7 / 11.8
16.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
Advantage
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
CHI
31-51-0
(37.8%)
Margin: -5.2
ATS +/-: -1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
Advantage
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
CHI
39-43-0
(47.6%)
Margin: -5.2
ATS +/-: -1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
CHI
38-44-0
O: 46.3% / U: 53.7%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHI
MIA
CHI
MIA
ML
56%
54-42
48%
46-50
57%
46-35
59%
48-34
ATS
65%
62-33-1
51%
49-47
57%
46-35
59%
48-34
TTL
58%
56-40
59%
57-39
100%
81-0
100%
82-0
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