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DENVER

NUGGETSDEN

47-32  |  Road

124
FINAL
Wed, Apr 9 • 10:00 PM ET
Golden 1 Center
View Odds Details →

SACRAMENTO

KINGSSAC

39-40  |  Home

116
AI Model Win Probability
NUGGETS
0%
📊
KINGS
100%
NUGGETS --
KINGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
224.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.4
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.4 points (Denver)
NuggetsDEN (-3.5) 0 KingsSAC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nuggets Cover

59.4%

Kings Cover

40.6%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DEN -2.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)

DEN By 1-7 points

27.0%

DEN By 8-14 points

19.1%

SAC By 1-7 points

22.5%

SAC By 8-14 points

11.6%

AI Model Projected Score
113.35
DENVER
110.98
SACRAMENTO
Simulated Score
118
DENVER
115
SACRAMENTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Nuggets Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Nuggets Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Nuggets (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -2.4
D
Sim Nuggets (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 224.3
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 233.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 11, 2025 DEN @ SAC 136 - 105
Nov 22, 2025 SAC @ DEN 128 - 123
Nov 11, 2025 DEN @ SAC 122 - 108
Nov 3, 2025 SAC @ DEN 124 - 130
Apr 9, 2025 DEN @ SAC 124 - 116
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +42.8% more
Denver: 6.1 vs Sacramento: 3.5
Assists (L5) +25.1% more
Denver: 30.8 vs Sacramento: 23.0
Turnovers (L5) +22.2% more
Denver: 16.5 vs Sacramento: 12.9
Field Goal % (L5) +1.6%
Denver: 51.7% vs Sacramento: 50.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DEN Score 113.4 124
SAC Score 111.0 116
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.5 / 32.7 44.4 / 38.2
Assists 23.0 / 30.8 25.0 / 30.0
Blocks 3.5 / 6.1 5.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 50.1 / 51.7 46.7 / 50.0
Free Throw % 79.6 / 74.3 82.4 / 80.6
Rebounding 45.0 / 46.1 40.0 / 45.0
Steals 6.9 / 5.8 2.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 12.9 / 16.5 8.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
79%MONEY21%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
86%MONEY14%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
94%MONEY6%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN Advantage
56-32-0 (63.6%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
SAC
22-60-0 (26.8%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
SAC
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8% Total +/-: +3.4
SAC
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SAC
DEN
SAC
DEN
ML
55% 55-45
54% 57-48
61% 50-32
55% 47-39
ATS
54% 52-45-3
63% 65-38-2
61% 50-32
55% 47-39
TTL
58% 57-42-1
54% 56-48-1
100% 82-0
100% 86-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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