ATLANTA
HAWKSATL
37-41 | Road
112
ORLANDO
MAGICORL
38-40 | Home
119
AI Model Win Probability
HAWKS
0%
MAGIC
100%
HAWKS
--
MAGIC
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
235.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.8
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.8 points (Atlanta)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ATL -1.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
ATL By 1-7 points
26.7%
ATL By 8-14 points
18.2%
ORL By 1-7 points
23.3%
ORL By 8-14 points
12.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
118.5
ATLANTA
Orlando
116.72
ORLANDO
Simulated Score
Atlanta
118
ATLANTA
Orlando
112
ORLANDO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Hawks
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Hawks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Hawks (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -1.8
D
Sim
Hawks (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 235.2
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 1, 2026
ATL @ ORL
130 - 101
Mar 16, 2026
ORL @ ATL
112 - 124
Nov 4, 2025
ORL @ ATL
112 - 127
Oct 24, 2025
ATL @ ORL
111 - 107
Apr 15, 2025
ATL @ ORL
95 - 120
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+24.3% more
Atlanta: 32.9
vs
Orlando: 24.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+5.3%
Atlanta: 40.3%
vs
Orlando: 35.0%
Field Goal % (L5)
+4.5%
Atlanta: 50.2%
vs
Orlando: 45.7%
Blocks (L5)
+36.7% more
Orlando: 6.0
vs
Atlanta: 4.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
118.5
112
ORL Score
116.7
119
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.0 / 40.3
41.2 / 34.1
Assists
24.9 / 32.9
23.0 / 25.0
Blocks
6.0 / 4.4
6.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
45.7 / 50.2
50.0 / 45.5
Free Throw %
87.4 / 81.9
67.7 / 81.8
Rebounding
43.3 / 41.6
43.0 / 41.0
Steals
8.7 / 8.9
13.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
13.1 / 13.5
14.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
Advantage
48-40-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
ORL
49-42-0
(53.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-: -1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
ORL
43-48-0
(47.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-: -1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.1
ORL
47-44-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ORL
ATL
ORL
ATL
ML
61%
65-42
50%
52-52
56%
51-40
55%
48-40
ATS
64%
68-38-1
53%
55-48-1
56%
51-40
55%
48-40
TTL
57%
61-46
53%
55-48-1
100%
91-0
100%
88-0
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