MEMPHIS
GRIZZLIESMEM
46-32 | Road
124
CHARLOTTE
HORNETSCHA
19-59 | Home
100
AI Model Win Probability
GRIZZLIES
0%
HORNETS
100%
GRIZZLIES
--
HORNETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
219.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
MEMPHIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (Memphis)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MEM -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MEM)
MEM By 1-7 points
26.2%
MEM By 8-14 points
16.8%
CHA By 1-7 points
24.3%
CHA By 8-14 points
13.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Memphis
110.26
MEMPHIS
Charlotte
109.32
CHARLOTTE
Simulated Score
Memphis
118
MEMPHIS
Charlotte
105
CHARLOTTE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Grizzlies
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Grizzlies
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Grizzlies (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -0.9
D
Sim
Grizzlies (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 219.6
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 21, 2026
MEM @ CHA
101 - 124
Jan 28, 2026
CHA @ MEM
112 - 97
Oct 15, 2025
MEM @ CHA
116 - 145
Apr 8, 2025
MEM @ CHA
124 - 100
Jan 22, 2025
CHA @ MEM
120 - 132
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+26.7% more
Memphis: 3.9
vs
Charlotte: 2.9
Steals (L5)
+22.5% more
Memphis: 6.6
vs
Charlotte: 5.1
Rebounding (L5)
+15.0% more
Memphis: 51.4
vs
Charlotte: 43.7
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+4.8%
Memphis: 35.2%
vs
Charlotte: 30.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MEM Score
110.3
124
CHA Score
109.3
100
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
30.4 / 35.2
28.9 / 32.7
Assists
23.2 / 23.1
22.0 / 23.0
Blocks
2.9 / 3.9
4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
46.1 / 45.3
45.7 / 45.2
Free Throw %
78.1 / 78.9
65.2 / 84.6
Rebounding
43.7 / 51.4
38.0 / 52.0
Steals
5.1 / 6.6
3.0 / 12.0
Turnovers
15.1 / 15.0
15.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MEM
25-57-0
(30.5%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
CHA
Advantage
45-39-0
(53.6%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MEM
37-45-0
(45.1%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
CHA
Advantage
50-34-0
(59.5%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6%
Total +/-: +1.4
CHA
32-52-0
O: 38.1% / U: 61.9%
Total +/-: -3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHA
MEM
CHA
MEM
ML
61%
60-39
57%
59-44
48%
40-44
50%
41-41
ATS
60%
59-40
63%
65-38
48%
40-44
50%
41-41
TTL
58%
57-42
70%
71-31-1
100%
84-0
100%
82-0
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