Home / NBA Projections NBA / Kings @ Pistons SAC @ DET

SACRAMENTO

KINGSSAC

38-40  |  Road

127
FINAL
Mon, Apr 7 • 7:00 PM ET
Little Caesars Arena
View Odds Details →

DETROIT

PISTONSDET

43-35  |  Home

117
AI Model Win Probability
KINGS
0%
📊
PISTONS
100%
KINGS --
PISTONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
229.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.7
SACRAMENTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.7 points (Sacramento)
KingsSAC (-3.5) 0 PistonsDET (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Kings Cover

60.6%

Pistons Cover

39.4%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SAC -2.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SAC)

SAC By 1-7 points

27.1%

SAC By 8-14 points

19.6%

DET By 1-7 points

22.1%

DET By 8-14 points

11.1%

AI Model Projected Score
116.08
SACRAMENTO
113.4
DETROIT
Simulated Score
118
SACRAMENTO
105
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Kings Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Kings Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Kings (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -2.7
D
Sim Kings (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 229.5
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 25, 2026 SAC @ DET 116 - 139
Dec 23, 2025 DET @ SAC 136 - 127
Apr 7, 2025 SAC @ DET 127 - 117
Dec 26, 2024 DET @ SAC 114 - 113
Feb 7, 2024 DET @ SAC 133 - 120
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +14.7% more
Sacramento: 13.3 vs Detroit: 11.3
Field Goal % (L5) +6.6%
Sacramento: 49.3% vs Detroit: 42.7%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +6.1%
Sacramento: 38.9% vs Detroit: 32.8%
Blocks (L5) +84.6% more
Detroit: 5.9 vs Sacramento: 3.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SAC Score 116.1 127
DET Score 113.4 117
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.8 / 38.9 33.3 / 40.7
Assists 24.5 / 24.5 30.0 / 20.0
Blocks 5.9 / 3.2 4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 42.7 / 49.3 47.2 / 51.6
Free Throw % 80.5 / 78.7 71.4 / 81.5
Rebounding 44.2 / 42.6 37.0 / 50.0
Steals 8.0 / 7.8 8.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 11.3 / 13.3 9.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
53%MONEY47%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
34%MONEY66%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
46%MONEY54%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SAC
22-60-0 (26.8%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
DET Advantage
67-29-0 (69.8%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: +2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SAC
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
DET Advantage
50-46-0 (52.1%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: +2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
SAC
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +0.8
DET
45-50-1
O: 47.4% / U: 52.6% Total +/-: -0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
SAC
DET
SAC
ML
55% 64-53
55% 55-45
49% 47-49
61% 50-32
ATS
53% 60-54-3
54% 52-45-3
49% 47-49
61% 50-32
TTL
60% 70-46-1
58% 57-42-1
100% 96-0
100% 82-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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