PHILADELPHIA
76ERSPHI
23-55 | Road
105
MIAMI
HEATMIA
35-43 | Home
117
AI Model Win Probability
76ERS
100%
HEAT
0%
76ERS
--
HEAT
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
219.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.9
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.9 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIA -9.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
PHI By 1-7 points
10.9%
PHI By 8-14 points
3.4%
MIA By 1-7 points
23.2%
MIA By 8-14 points
27.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Philadelphia
104.61
PHILADELPHIA
Miami
114.49
MIAMI
Simulated Score
Philadelphia
118
PHILADELPHIA
Miami
112
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Heat
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
76ers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Heat (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -9.9
D
Sim
76ers (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 219.1
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 30, 2026
PHI @ MIA
109 - 119
Feb 26, 2026
MIA @ PHI
117 - 124
Nov 23, 2025
MIA @ PHI
127 - 117
Apr 7, 2025
PHI @ MIA
105 - 117
Mar 29, 2025
MIA @ PHI
118 - 95
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+21.2% more
Miami: 46.9
vs
Philadelphia: 38.7
Free Throw % (L5)
+12.5%
Miami: 83.6%
vs
Philadelphia: 71.1%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+8.6%
Miami: 39.6%
vs
Philadelphia: 30.9%
Blocks (L5)
+34.4% more
Philadelphia: 5.1
vs
Miami: 3.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHI Score
104.6
105
MIA Score
114.5
117
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
39.6 / 30.9
44.4 / 31.6
Assists
25.9 / 26.0
26.0 / 20.0
Blocks
3.3 / 5.1
6.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
46.0 / 46.8
50.6 / 43.2
Free Throw %
83.6 / 71.1
73.3 / 68.0
Rebounding
46.9 / 38.7
47.0 / 45.0
Steals
8.3 / 8.6
7.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
11.2 / 14.4
13.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
Advantage
50-44-0
(53.2%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
MIA
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
50-44-0
(53.2%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
MIA
Advantage
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
44-50-0
O: 46.8% / U: 53.2%
Total +/-: +1.4
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
PHI
MIA
PHI
ML
48%
46-50
63%
69-40
59%
48-34
48%
45-48
ATS
51%
49-47
65%
71-38
59%
48-34
48%
45-48
TTL
59%
57-39
55%
60-49
100%
82-0
100%
93-0
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