Home / MLB Projections MLB / Padres @ Athletics SD @ ATH

SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

8-2  |  Road

5
FINAL
Mon, Apr 7 • 10:05 PM ET
Sutter Health Park
View Odds Details →

ATHLETICS

ATHLETICSATH

4-6  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Jeremiah Estrada
STARTING PITCHER

Jeremiah Estrada

#56 | RP
@
Jacob Wilson
STARTING PITCHER

Jacob Wilson

#5 | Shortstop
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jeremiah Estrada None-None 1.42 -- 1.0 1
Jacob Wilson None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
1.42 ERA --
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) --
1 K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
0%
📊
ATHLETICS
100%
PADRES --
ATHLETICS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.8
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.8 points (San Diego)
PadresSD (-3.5) 0 AthleticsATH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Padres Cover

67.5%

Athletics Cover

32.5%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SD -1.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)

SD By 1-2 runs

19.7%

SD By 3-4 runs

18.1%

ATH By 1-2 runs

14.1%

ATH By 3-4 runs

8.3%

AI Model Projected Score
3.64
SAN DIEGO
1.82
ATHLETICS
Simulated Score
5
SAN DIEGO
3
ATHLETICS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Padres Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Padres Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Padres (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.8
D
Sim Padres (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 5.5
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 24, 2026 ATH @ SD 5 - 2
May 23, 2026 ATH @ SD 0 - 2
May 22, 2026 ATH @ SD 3 - 7
Apr 9, 2025 SD @ ATH 2 - 1
Apr 8, 2025 SD @ ATH 4 - 10
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego SD
vs
Athletics ATH
2
Games Played
▲ 162
6.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.31
.328 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.362 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.563 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.925 ▲
OPS
.719
4
Home Runs
▲ 194
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +39.0% more
San Diego: 0.7 vs Athletics: 0.3
Walks (L5) +31.7% more
San Diego: 6.1 vs Athletics: 4.2
Runs per Game (Season) +28.2% more
San Diego: 6.0 vs Athletics: 4.3
OPS (Season) +20.6%
San Diego: 92.5% vs Athletics: 71.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SD Score 3.6 5
ATH Score 1.8 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.7 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 9.1 / 9.8 10.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 1.7 / 0.8 2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 9.4 / 8.2 5.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 15.3 / 13.2 17.0 / 19.0
Walks 4.2 / 6.1 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
91%TICKETS9%
93%MONEY7%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
83%TICKETS17%
88%MONEY12%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
92%MONEY8%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD Advantage
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
ATH
64-98-0 (39.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATH
SD
ATH
SD
ML
59% 95-67
51% 85-83
54% 87-74
51% 85-82
ATS
52% 84-78
54% 91-77
50% 81-80
55% 92-75
TTL
54% 84-73-5
51% 82-80-6
42% 66-90-5
54% 86-74-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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