Home / NBA Projections NBA / Pacers @ Nuggets IND @ DEN

INDIANA

PACERSIND

46-31  |  Road

125
FINAL
Sun, Apr 6 • 8:00 PM ET
Ball Arena
View Odds Details →

DENVER

NUGGETSDEN

47-31  |  Home

120
AI Model Win Probability
PACERS
100%
📊
NUGGETS
0%
PACERS --
NUGGETS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
242.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.6
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.6 points (Denver)
PacersIND (-3.5) 0 NuggetsDEN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pacers Cover

19.6%

Nuggets Cover

80.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DEN -8.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)

IND By 1-7 points

12.8%

IND By 8-14 points

4.4%

DEN By 1-7 points

24.8%

DEN By 8-14 points

26.6%

AI Model Projected Score
116.77
INDIANA
125.33
DENVER
Simulated Score
118
INDIANA
125
DENVER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Nuggets Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Nuggets Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Nuggets (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -8.6
D
Sim Nuggets (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 242.1
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 243.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 3, 2025 DEN @ IND 135 - 120
Nov 8, 2025 IND @ DEN 100 - 117
Apr 6, 2025 IND @ DEN 125 - 120
Feb 24, 2025 DEN @ IND 125 - 116
Jan 23, 2024 DEN @ IND 114 - 109
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +90.3% more
Denver: 18.3 vs Indiana: 9.6
Blocks (L5) +39.0% more
Indiana: 9.1 vs Denver: 5.6
Assists (L5) +10.1% more
Indiana: 32.9 vs Denver: 29.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +2.6%
Indiana: 38.6% vs Denver: 36.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
IND Score 116.8 125
DEN Score 125.3 120
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.1 / 38.6 25.8 / 34.1
Assists 29.6 / 32.9 33.0 / 34.0
Blocks 5.6 / 9.1 7.0 / 7.0
Field Goal % 50.7 / 52.1 53.8 / 47.9
Free Throw % 78.1 / 77.7 66.7 / 85.7
Rebounding 45.6 / 44.5 47.0 / 41.0
Steals 7.8 / 8.0 2.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 18.3 / 9.6 13.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
14%TICKETS86%
15%MONEY85%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
18%MONEY82%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
89%MONEY11%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IND
19-63-0 (23.2%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
DEN Advantage
56-32-0 (63.6%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IND
40-42-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
DEN Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.8
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8% Total +/-: +3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEN
IND
DEN
IND
ML
54% 57-48
48% 47-50
55% 47-39
54% 45-38
ATS
63% 65-38-2
59% 57-40
55% 47-39
54% 45-38
TTL
54% 56-48-1
54% 52-45
100% 86-0
100% 83-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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