DALLAS
STARSDAL
50-22-4 | Road
2
MINNESOTA
WILDMIN
41-29-7 | Home
3
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Jake Oettinger
#29 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Filip Gustavsson
#32 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Oettinger | None-None | 2.95 | 0.927 | -- |
| Filip Gustavsson | None-None | 1.97 | 0.920 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
2.95
GAA
Ldr 1.97
0.927 Ldr
Save %
0.920
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
STARS
0%
WILD
100%
STARS
--
WILD
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.6 points (Dallas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around DAL -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)
DAL By 1 goal
19.0%
DAL By 2-3 goals
34.5%
MIN By 1 goal
8.9%
MIN By 2-3 goals
5.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Dallas
3.97
DALLAS
Minnesota
2.42
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
Dallas
3
DALLAS
Minnesota
2
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Stars
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Stars
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Stars (-0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.6
D
Sim
Stars (-0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 6.4
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 30, 2026
DAL @ MIN
2 - 5
Apr 28, 2026
MIN @ DAL
4 - 2
Apr 25, 2026
DAL @ MIN
2 - 3
Apr 22, 2026
DAL @ MIN
4 - 3
Apr 18, 2026
MIN @ DAL
6 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Power Play % (L5)
+8.5%
Dallas: 23.9%
vs
Minnesota: 15.4%
Faceoff % (L5)
+6.6%
Dallas: 50.5%
vs
Minnesota: 43.9%
Hits (L5)
+71.3% more
Minnesota: 21.9
vs
Dallas: 12.8
Blocked Shots (L5)
+24.6% more
Minnesota: 19.4
vs
Dallas: 15.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DAL Score
4.0
2
MIN Score
2.4
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
19.4 / 15.5
14.0 / 10.0
Faceoff %
43.9 / 50.5
35.7 / 64.3
Hits
21.9 / 12.8
27.0 / 17.0
Power Play %
15.4 / 23.9
25.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
26.2 / 25.2
41.0 / 25.0
Takeaways
4.4 / 4.3
9.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
DAL
MIN
DAL
ML
67%
2-1
33%
1-2
33%
1-2
33%
1-2
ATS
33%
1-2
0%
0-3
33%
1-2
33%
1-2
TTL
100%
3-0
100%
3-0
67%
2-1
33%
1-2
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