SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
7-2 | Road
8
CHICAGO
CUBSCHC
7-4 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jeremiah Estrada
#56 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Caleb Thielbar
#24 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremiah Estrada | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
| Caleb Thielbar | None-None | 6.23 | -- | 0.2 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
0.00 Ldr
ERA
6.23
--
WHIP
--
1.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.2
2 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
100%
CUBS
0%
PADRES
--
CUBS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Chicago)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHC -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)
SD By 1-2 runs
17.6%
SD By 3-4 runs
12.2%
CHC By 1-2 runs
19.1%
CHC By 3-4 runs
14.9%
AI Model Projected Score
San Diego
4.21
SAN DIEGO
Chicago
4.67
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
San Diego
5
SAN DIEGO
Chicago
4
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Cubs
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Padres
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Cubs (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.5
D
Sim
Padres (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.9
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 30, 2026
CHC @ SD
1 - 4
Sep 29, 2026
CHC @ SD
0 - 8
Jul 1, 2026
SD @ CHC
3 - 23
Jun 30, 2026
SD @ CHC
7 - 9
Jun 29, 2026
SD @ CHC
2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego
SD
vs
Chicago
CHC
2
Games Played
2
6.00
▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.328
▲
Avg (AVG)
.129
.362
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.563
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
.925
▲
OPS
.374
4
▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+94.0% more
Chicago: 1.6
vs
San Diego: 0.7
Total Bases (L5)
+35.3% more
Chicago: 15.9
vs
San Diego: 11.7
Hits (L5)
+12.0% more
Chicago: 9.2
vs
San Diego: 8.3
Runs per Game (Season)
+91.7% more
San Diego: 6.0
vs
Chicago: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SD Score
4.2
8
CHC Score
4.7
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 1.0
2.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.2 / 8.3
6.0 / 13.0
Home Runs
1.6 / 0.7
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
6.7 / 8.3
10.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
15.9 / 11.7
10.0 / 16.0
Walks
2.3 / 5.1
8.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
CHC
89-75-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
SD
CHC
SD
ML
58%
93-68
51%
85-83
51%
82-79
51%
85-82
ATS
61%
97-63-1
54%
91-77
47%
75-85-1
55%
92-75
TTL
52%
81-74-6
51%
82-80-6
46%
72-83-6
54%
86-74-6
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