ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
4-4 | Road
7
BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
5-4 | Home
18
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Kyle Leahy
#62 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Aroldis Chapman
#44 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Leahy | None-None | 1.80 | -- | 1.2 | 4 |
| Aroldis Chapman | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.80
ERA
Ldr 0.00
--
WHIP
--
1.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
4 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
2
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
0%
RED SOX
100%
CARDINALS
--
RED SOX
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
0.0
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around STL 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)
STL By 1-2 runs
18.5%
STL By 3-4 runs
13.7%
BOS By 1-2 runs
18.4%
BOS By 3-4 runs
13.5%
AI Model Projected Score
St. Louis
5.14
ST. LOUIS
Boston
5.11
BOSTON
Simulated Score
St. Louis
5
ST. LOUIS
Boston
4
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Cardinals
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cardinals
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cardinals (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: 0.0
D
Sim
Cardinals (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 10.3
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 12, 2026
BOS @ STL
9 - 3
Apr 11, 2026
BOS @ STL
7 - 1
Apr 10, 2026
BOS @ STL
2 - 3
Apr 6, 2025
STL @ BOS
7 - 18
Apr 4, 2025
STL @ BOS
9 - 13
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis
STL
vs
Boston
BOS
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.44
▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.239
▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.313
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.378
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
.691
▲
OPS
.409
167
▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+98.8% more
St. Louis: 167.0
vs
Boston: 2.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+77.5% more
St. Louis: 4.4
vs
Boston: 1.0
Walks (L5)
+44.9% more
St. Louis: 4.0
vs
Boston: 2.2
OPS (Season)
+28.2%
St. Louis: 69.1%
vs
Boston: 40.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
STL Score
5.1
7
BOS Score
5.1
18
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.3 / 0.1
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
11.3 / 12.0
8.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
1.6 / 2.0
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.5 / 6.5
12.0 / 13.0
Total Bases
18.9 / 19.8
12.0 / 13.0
Walks
2.2 / 4.0
6.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
BOS
Advantage
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL
Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
STL
BOS
STL
ML
50%
80-80
53%
85-74
47%
76-87
52%
84-77
ATS
58%
93-67
56%
89-70
48%
79-84
53%
85-76
TTL
46%
72-83-5
46%
68-81-10
47%
74-83-6
50%
76-75-10
Contextual Game News
Cardinals Eye Another Dustin May-Style Signing to Bolster Rotati…
Red Sox Offseason: Roman Anthony Avoids Surgery, Power Bat Searc…
Cardinals Face Critical Contract Calls on Jordan Walker, Alec Bu…
Giants Defy Odds: Harbaugh Applauds Resilience After Dramatic Wi…
Penalties and Turnovers Sink Colorado in 29-7 Loss to No. 12 Tex…