MEMPHIS
GRIZZLIESMEM
45-32 | Road
109
DETROIT
PISTONSDET
43-34 | Home
103
AI Model Win Probability
GRIZZLIES
0%
PISTONS
100%
GRIZZLIES
--
PISTONS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
235.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.2
MEMPHIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.2 points (Memphis)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MEM -4.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MEM)
MEM By 1-7 points
27.4%
MEM By 8-14 points
22.0%
DET By 1-7 points
19.8%
DET By 8-14 points
9.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Memphis
119.63
MEMPHIS
Detroit
115.39
DETROIT
Simulated Score
Memphis
118
MEMPHIS
Detroit
105
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Grizzlies
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Grizzlies
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Grizzlies (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.2
D
Sim
Grizzlies (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 235.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 13, 2026
MEM @ DET
110 - 126
Nov 3, 2025
DET @ MEM
114 - 106
Oct 6, 2025
DET @ MEM
128 - 112
Apr 5, 2025
MEM @ DET
109 - 103
Nov 27, 2024
DET @ MEM
111 - 131
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+10.2% more
Memphis: 15.1
vs
Detroit: 13.5
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.7%
Memphis: 38.8%
vs
Detroit: 36.1%
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.4%
Memphis: 47.2%
vs
Detroit: 44.8%
Blocks (L5)
+33.6% more
Detroit: 5.8
vs
Memphis: 4.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MEM Score
119.6
109
DET Score
115.4
103
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.1 / 38.8
26.2 / 28.1
Assists
24.8 / 25.1
24.0 / 19.0
Blocks
5.8 / 4.3
6.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
44.8 / 47.2
38.5 / 41.5
Free Throw %
81.6 / 80.4
78.3 / 75.9
Rebounding
44.2 / 45.1
44.0 / 64.0
Steals
7.5 / 8.0
9.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
13.5 / 15.1
7.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MEM
25-57-0
(30.5%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
DET
Advantage
67-29-0
(69.8%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MEM
37-45-0
(45.1%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
DET
Advantage
50-46-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6%
Total +/-: +1.4
DET
45-50-1
O: 47.4% / U: 52.6%
Total +/-: -0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
MEM
DET
MEM
ML
55%
64-53
57%
59-44
49%
47-49
50%
41-41
ATS
53%
60-54-3
63%
65-38
49%
47-49
50%
41-41
TTL
60%
70-46-1
70%
71-31-1
100%
96-0
100%
82-0
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