PITTSBURGH
PENGUINSPIT
30-34-12 | Road
5
DALLAS
STARSDAL
50-21-4 | Home
3
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Kris Letang
#58 | Defense@
GOALTENDER
Casey DeSmith
#1 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kris Letang | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
| Casey DeSmith | None-None | 4.02 | 0.897 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
--
GAA
4.02
--
Save %
0.897
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
PENGUINS
100%
STARS
0%
PENGUINS
--
STARS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.5
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.5 points (Dallas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around DAL -2.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)
PIT By 1 goal
4.3%
PIT By 2-3 goals
2.1%
DAL By 1 goal
14.9%
DAL By 2-3 goals
38.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
2.19
PITTSBURGH
Dallas
4.71
DALLAS
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
3
PITTSBURGH
Dallas
2
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Stars
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Penguins
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Stars (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -2.5
D
Sim
Penguins (-0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 6.9
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 28, 2026
DAL @ PIT
6 - 3
Dec 7, 2025
PIT @ DAL
2 - 3
Apr 5, 2025
PIT @ DAL
5 - 3
Nov 11, 2024
DAL @ PIT
7 - 1
Mar 22, 2024
PIT @ DAL
2 - 4
Key Model Drivers
Faceoff % (L5)
+4.1%
Dallas: 55.4%
vs
Pittsburgh: 51.2%
Hits (L5)
+41.3% more
Pittsburgh: 25.9
vs
Dallas: 15.2
Power Play % (L5)
+39.3%
Pittsburgh: 50.1%
vs
Dallas: 10.8%
Takeaways (L5)
+36.5% more
Pittsburgh: 5.5
vs
Dallas: 3.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
2.2
5
DAL Score
4.7
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
13.3 / 12.9
20.0 / 11.0
Faceoff %
55.4 / 51.2
40.6 / 59.4
Hits
15.2 / 25.9
8.0 / 17.0
Power Play %
10.8 / 50.1
50.0 / 33.3
Shots on Goal
25.8 / 27.5
24.0 / 40.0
Takeaways
3.5 / 5.5
6.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
PIT
DAL
PIT
ML
33%
1-2
75%
3-1
33%
1-2
25%
1-3
ATS
0%
0-3
75%
3-1
33%
1-2
75%
3-1
TTL
100%
3-0
25%
1-3
33%
1-2
50%
2-2
Contextual Game News
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