Home / NBA Projections NBA / Pistons @ Raptors DET @ TOR

DETROIT

PISTONSDET

42-34  |  Road

117
FINAL
Fri, Apr 4 • 7:30 PM ET
Scotiabank Arena
View Odds Details →

TORONTO

RAPTORSTOR

28-49  |  Home

105
AI Model Win Probability
PISTONS
0%
📊
RAPTORS
100%
PISTONS --
RAPTORS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
227.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.5
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.5 points (Detroit)
PistonsDET (-3.5) 0 RaptorsTOR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pistons Cover

63.6%

Raptors Cover

36.4%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DET -3.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)

DET By 1-7 points

27.3%

DET By 8-14 points

20.9%

TOR By 1-7 points

20.9%

TOR By 8-14 points

10.0%

AI Model Projected Score
115.22
DETROIT
111.74
TORONTO
Simulated Score
112
DETROIT
118
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Pistons Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Raptors Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Pistons (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.5
D
Sim Raptors (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 31, 2026 TOR @ DET 116 - 127
Mar 15, 2026 DET @ TOR 108 - 119
Feb 11, 2026 DET @ TOR 113 - 95
Apr 4, 2025 DET @ TOR 117 - 105
Jan 11, 2025 TOR @ DET 114 - 123
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +45.9% more
Detroit: 5.2 vs Toronto: 2.8
Free Throw % (L5) +7.6%
Detroit: 79.7% vs Toronto: 72.2%
Steals (L5) +75.1% more
Toronto: 10.1 vs Detroit: 5.8
Assists (L5) +30.2% more
Toronto: 30.8 vs Detroit: 23.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DET Score 115.2 117
TOR Score 111.7 105
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.5 / 36.5 35.1 / 35.3
Assists 30.8 / 23.7 24.0 / 27.0
Blocks 2.8 / 5.2 6.0 / 7.0
Field Goal % 45.1 / 44.1 41.8 / 46.1
Free Throw % 72.2 / 79.7 80.0 / 85.2
Rebounding 41.6 / 42.8 49.0 / 47.0
Steals 10.1 / 5.8 9.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 13.9 / 13.3 16.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
85%TICKETS15%
54%MONEY46%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
75%MONEY25%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
44%MONEY56%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET Advantage
67-29-0 (69.8%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: +2.0
TOR
49-40-0 (55.1%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET Advantage
50-46-0 (52.1%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: +2.0
TOR
46-43-0 (51.7%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
45-50-1
O: 47.4% / U: 52.6% Total +/-: -0.8
TOR
37-52-0
O: 41.6% / U: 58.4% Total +/-: -1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
DET
TOR
DET
ML
55% 57-47
55% 64-53
55% 48-39
49% 47-49
ATS
61% 62-40-2
53% 60-54-3
55% 48-39
49% 47-49
TTL
60% 62-42
60% 70-46-1
100% 87-0
100% 96-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Matt Barnes: Clippers Are Cursed, Urges Steve Ballmer to Rebrand
tmz 40 minutes ago
ATLAS League Launches to Crown World Champion in High School Bas…
yahoo 48 minutes ago
Cal Bears' Injury Report: Eight Players Questionable for Virgini…
headtopics 18 hours, 55 minutes ago
Chicago Bulls Edge Phoenix Suns 124-117 in Preseason Opener
headtopics 18 hours, 58 minutes ago
Mike Breen Issues Apology After LeBron James Shoots Down Embiid …
cbssports 1 day ago