ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
4-2 | Road
9
BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
3-4 | Home
13
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Masyn Winn
#0 | Shortstop@
STARTING PITCHER
Aroldis Chapman
#44 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Masyn Winn | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Aroldis Chapman | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 0.2 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
--
ERA
0.00
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.2
--
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
0%
RED SOX
100%
CARDINALS
--
RED SOX
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.6
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 points (St. Louis)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around STL -0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)
STL By 1-2 runs
19.3%
STL By 3-4 runs
15.4%
BOS By 1-2 runs
17.2%
BOS By 3-4 runs
11.7%
AI Model Projected Score
St. Louis
5
ST. LOUIS
Boston
4.36
BOSTON
Simulated Score
St. Louis
5
ST. LOUIS
Boston
4
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Cardinals
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cardinals
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cardinals (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.6
D
Sim
Cardinals (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.4
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 12, 2026
BOS @ STL
9 - 3
Apr 11, 2026
BOS @ STL
7 - 1
Apr 10, 2026
BOS @ STL
2 - 3
Apr 6, 2025
STL @ BOS
7 - 18
Apr 4, 2025
STL @ BOS
9 - 13
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis
STL
vs
Boston
BOS
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.44
▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.239
▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.313
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.378
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
.691
▲
OPS
.409
167
▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+98.8% more
St. Louis: 167.0
vs
Boston: 2.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+77.5% more
St. Louis: 4.4
vs
Boston: 1.0
Home Runs (L5)
+31.2% more
St. Louis: 2.0
vs
Boston: 1.4
OPS (Season)
+28.2%
St. Louis: 69.1%
vs
Boston: 40.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
STL Score
5.0
9
BOS Score
4.4
13
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.2
3.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.9 / 11.1
16.0 / 14.0
Home Runs
1.4 / 2.0
2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
8.3 / 8.3
9.0 / 3.0
Total Bases
15.4 / 18.7
26.0 / 22.0
Walks
2.3 / 2.0
2.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
BOS
Advantage
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL
Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
STL
BOS
STL
ML
50%
80-80
53%
85-74
47%
76-87
52%
84-77
ATS
58%
93-67
56%
89-70
48%
79-84
53%
85-76
TTL
46%
72-83-5
46%
68-81-10
47%
74-83-6
50%
76-75-10
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