Home / NBA Projections NBA / Trail Blazers @ Raptors POR @ TOR

PORTLAND

TRAIL BLAZERSPOR

33-43  |  Road

112
FINAL
Thu, Apr 3 • 7:30 PM ET
Scotiabank Arena
View Odds Details →

TORONTO

RAPTORSTOR

28-48  |  Home

103
AI Model Win Probability
TRAIL BLAZERS
100%
📊
RAPTORS
0%
TRAIL BLAZERS --
RAPTORS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
221.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.1
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.1 points (Toronto)
Trail BlazersPOR (-3.5) 0 RaptorsTOR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Trail Blazers Cover

37.7%

Raptors Cover

62.3%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around TOR -3.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)

POR By 1-7 points

21.4%

POR By 8-14 points

10.5%

TOR By 1-7 points

27.3%

TOR By 8-14 points

20.3%

AI Model Projected Score
109.38
PORTLAND
112.51
TORONTO
Simulated Score
118
PORTLAND
122
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Raptors Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Raptors Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Raptors (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.1
D
Sim Raptors (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 221.9
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 240.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 23, 2026 TOR @ POR 110 - 98
Dec 2, 2025 POR @ TOR 118 - 121
Apr 3, 2025 POR @ TOR 112 - 103
Mar 16, 2025 TOR @ POR 102 - 105
Mar 9, 2024 TOR @ POR 118 - 128
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +25.1% more
Toronto: 31.8 vs Portland: 25.4
Free Throw % (L5) +7.9%
Toronto: 78.3% vs Portland: 70.4%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +6.9%
Toronto: 38.6% vs Portland: 31.7%
Steals (L5) +22.6% more
Portland: 10.5 vs Toronto: 8.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
POR Score 109.4 112
TOR Score 112.5 103
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.6 / 31.7 35.3 / 29.4
Assists 31.8 / 25.4 29.0 / 20.0
Blocks 3.7 / 4.2 1.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 44.8 / 44.1 45.8 / 48.8
Free Throw % 78.3 / 70.4 60.0 / 90.0
Rebounding 44.9 / 44.8 35.0 / 54.0
Steals 8.1 / 10.5 14.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 11.8 / 14.5 18.0 / 25.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
69%MONEY31%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
76%MONEY24%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
50%MONEY50%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
POR
44-44-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
TOR Advantage
49-40-0 (55.1%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
POR Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
TOR
46-43-0 (51.7%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
POR
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.0
TOR
37-52-0
O: 41.6% / U: 58.4% Total +/-: -1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
POR
TOR
POR
ML
55% 57-47
53% 56-49
55% 48-39
55% 49-40
ATS
61% 62-40-2
62% 65-39-1
55% 48-39
55% 49-40
TTL
60% 62-42
56% 58-46-1
100% 87-0
100% 89-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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