MEMPHIS
GRIZZLIESMEM
44-32 | Road
110
MIAMI
HEATMIA
35-41 | Home
108
AI Model Win Probability
GRIZZLIES
0%
HEAT
100%
GRIZZLIES
--
HEAT
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
229.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.8
MEMPHIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 points (Memphis)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MEM -0.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MEM)
MEM By 1-7 points
26.0%
MEM By 8-14 points
16.6%
MIA By 1-7 points
24.5%
MIA By 8-14 points
14.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Memphis
115.28
MEMPHIS
Miami
114.5
MIAMI
Simulated Score
Memphis
118
MEMPHIS
Miami
115
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Grizzlies
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Grizzlies
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Grizzlies (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -0.8
D
Sim
Grizzlies (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 229.8
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 233.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 21, 2026
MEM @ MIA
120 - 136
Oct 24, 2025
MIA @ MEM
146 - 114
Apr 3, 2025
MEM @ MIA
110 - 108
Mar 15, 2025
MIA @ MEM
91 - 125
Oct 18, 2024
MIA @ MEM
114 - 109
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+39.8% more
Memphis: 4.5
vs
Miami: 2.7
Turnovers (L5)
+10.8% more
Memphis: 13.6
vs
Miami: 12.1
Steals (L5)
+27.4% more
Miami: 10.1
vs
Memphis: 7.9
Assists (L5)
+10.2% more
Miami: 28.3
vs
Memphis: 25.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MEM Score
115.3
110
MIA Score
114.5
108
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
43.4 / 37.1
42.4 / 42.1
Assists
28.3 / 25.6
24.0 / 24.0
Blocks
2.7 / 4.5
8.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
51.2 / 47.2
41.1 / 47.1
Free Throw %
80.3 / 79.3
84.2 / 82.4
Rebounding
43.1 / 43.1
47.0 / 49.0
Steals
10.1 / 7.9
11.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
12.1 / 13.6
11.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MEM
25-57-0
(30.5%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
MIA
Advantage
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MEM
37-45-0
(45.1%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
MIA
Advantage
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6%
Total +/-: +1.4
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
MEM
MIA
MEM
ML
48%
46-50
57%
59-44
59%
48-34
50%
41-41
ATS
51%
49-47
63%
65-38
59%
48-34
50%
41-41
TTL
59%
57-39
70%
71-31-1
100%
82-0
100%
82-0
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