PITTSBURGH
PENGUINSPIT
30-34-11 | Road
4
ST. LOUIS
BLUESSTL
41-28-7 | Home
5
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Kris Letang
#58 | Defense@
GOALTENDER
Joel Hofer
#30 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kris Letang | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
| Joel Hofer | None-None | 3.86 | 0.857 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
--
GAA
3.86
--
Save %
0.857
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
PENGUINS
100%
BLUES
0%
PENGUINS
--
BLUES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.6
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 points (St. Louis)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around STL -0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)
PIT By 1 goal
14.4%
PIT By 2-3 goals
12.6%
STL By 1 goal
19.4%
STL By 2-3 goals
25.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
3.56
PITTSBURGH
St. Louis
4.17
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
3
PITTSBURGH
St. Louis
2
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Blues
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Penguins
Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Blues (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -0.6
D
Sim
Penguins (-0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.7
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 14, 2026
PIT @ STL
5 - 7
Oct 27, 2025
STL @ PIT
3 - 6
Apr 3, 2025
PIT @ STL
4 - 5
Mar 13, 2025
STL @ PIT
3 - 5
Dec 30, 2023
STL @ PIT
2 - 4
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5)
+19.5% more
St. Louis: 16.5
vs
Pittsburgh: 13.8
Hits (L5)
+9.4% more
St. Louis: 31.6
vs
Pittsburgh: 28.9
Shots on Goal (L5)
+8.8% more
St. Louis: 29.7
vs
Pittsburgh: 27.3
Takeaways (L5)
+12.7% more
Pittsburgh: 5.7
vs
St. Louis: 5.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
3.6
4
STL Score
4.2
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
16.5 / 13.8
13.0 / 11.0
Faceoff %
50.5 / 58.5
63.2 / 36.8
Hits
31.6 / 28.9
22.0 / 20.0
Power Play %
14.1 / 25.2
20.0 / 100.0
Shots on Goal
29.7 / 27.3
19.0 / 28.0
Takeaways
5.0 / 5.7
5.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
PIT
STL
PIT
ML
33%
1-2
75%
3-1
67%
2-1
25%
1-3
ATS
67%
2-1
75%
3-1
33%
1-2
75%
3-1
TTL
50%
1-1-1
25%
1-3
50%
1-1-1
50%
2-2
Contextual Game News
The Unexpected Cornerback the Steelers Regret Losing
Canadiens Turn to Rookie Jacob Fowler in Net Against Predators; …
Ovechkin's Sons Steal the Show at Capitals' Home Opener as Washi…
Ovechkin's Sons Steal the Show as Capitals Clip Penguins 5-3 in …
Penguins Embarrassed by Capitals as Turnovers and Disorganizatio…