CHARLOTTE
HORNETSCHA
19-56 | Road
105
INDIANA
PACERSIND
44-31 | Home
119
AI Model Win Probability
HORNETS
100%
PACERS
0%
HORNETS
--
PACERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
225.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.5
INDIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.5 points (Indiana)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around IND -2.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IND)
CHA By 1-7 points
22.3%
CHA By 8-14 points
11.4%
IND By 1-7 points
27.1%
IND By 8-14 points
19.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Charlotte
111.64
CHARLOTTE
Indiana
114.15
INDIANA
Simulated Score
Charlotte
118
CHARLOTTE
Indiana
124
INDIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Pacers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pacers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Pacers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -2.5
D
Sim
Pacers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 225.8
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 242.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 3, 2026
IND @ CHA
108 - 129
Feb 26, 2026
CHA @ IND
133 - 109
Jan 8, 2026
IND @ CHA
114 - 112
Nov 19, 2025
CHA @ IND
118 - 127
Apr 2, 2025
CHA @ IND
105 - 119
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+12.9% more
Indiana: 31.1
vs
Charlotte: 27.6
Free Throw % (L5)
+12.3%
Indiana: 88.5%
vs
Charlotte: 76.2%
Field Goal % (L5)
+4.4%
Indiana: 49.6%
vs
Charlotte: 45.2%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+3.9%
Indiana: 38.3%
vs
Charlotte: 34.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHA Score
111.6
105
IND Score
114.2
119
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.3 / 34.5
40.9 / 41.7
Assists
31.1 / 27.6
29.0 / 20.0
Blocks
4.8 / 4.9
6.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
49.6 / 45.2
49.5 / 52.6
Free Throw %
88.5 / 76.2
70.0 / 72.2
Rebounding
42.8 / 46.7
38.0 / 44.0
Steals
6.9 / 6.5
10.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
13.4 / 16.4
6.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHA
Advantage
45-39-0
(53.6%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
IND
19-63-0
(23.2%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHA
Advantage
50-34-0
(59.5%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
IND
40-42-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
CHA
32-52-0
O: 38.1% / U: 61.9%
Total +/-: -3.4
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IND
CHA
IND
CHA
ML
48%
47-50
61%
60-39
54%
45-38
48%
40-44
ATS
59%
57-40
60%
59-40
54%
45-38
48%
40-44
TTL
54%
52-45
58%
57-42
100%
83-0
100%
84-0
Contextual Game News
Tyler Kolek's Girlfriend Spills: Knicks Parade Police Mix-Up Hap…
Matt Barnes: Clippers Are Cursed, Urges Steve Ballmer to Rebrand
ATLAS League Launches to Crown World Champion in High School Bas…
Bill Self's Revamped Kansas Roster Built for Another National Ti…
Phillies' 2027 Forecast: Four Farmhands Ready to Step Up